391 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Will  also sell a few TLT PUTS

 

 

Change strategy:

SELLING CALLS 

5 AAPL 165

5 TESLA 320

 

Will add more above AAPL 168 and TESLA 314

 

Will buy PUTS on rally of a few TECH stocks -- AMZN, AAPL, etc but not CHIP stocks.....

 

[steadyquest]

[redfoliage2]

It's likely a "Buy the Rumor and Sell the News" setup if tomorrow's CPI data not as rosy as the traders thought or changes not as significant as the Fed would like to see.....................

The Fed is more concerned on the tight job market and personal incomes than on the CPI as Powell indicated again and again.  With the 2% target the Fed set an 8% CPI is way too high for the Fed.  So expecting tomorrow's CPI to have an effect on the Fed tightening course is either wishful thinking/hype that won't last ..................................

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 September 2022 - 12:47 PM.

[pdx5]

Headline inflation is expected to rise at an 8.1% pace over the year in August, compared with 8.5% in July.

 

Core CPI, which strips out volatile factors such as energy and food, is expected to increase to 6.1% from 5.9% in the previous month.

 

FED target is to lower Core CPI to 2%.

Edited by pdx5, 12 September 2022 - 01:12 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Out of curiosity, where on earth are you seeing this irrational exuberance? Helene's got a plurality of Bulls, but it's modest and typically not a fade. Every other measure I've got is Bearish still.

 

That said, I see a correction "tell" in the VIX at the moment.

 

M

 

Suddenly, after a few days from extreme gloom and bearishness, there is a pandemic of irrational exuberance! And, in September, most bearish month on the year, seasonally. 

 

Most of this seem to be the hope that inflation will be lower than previous month, even if still above 6 or 7^. 

 

Hope is eternal but markets will dash all these bullish hopes, wishes, and dreams by the next week or so, into the end of month & quarter. 

 

OPEX week is here, usually bullish until Wednesday, then down. Could be different this time around -- bullish then down seems more likely. 

 

I will continue to build a partially hedge HUGE SHORT position on all rallies. 

 

 

 

[steadyquest]

The fed couldn't give a rat's butt about their 2% talking-point inflation target.  Their goal is to destroy the dollar just a little bit slower than the fiat of other countries is being destroyed, with the essential purpose being to lower the real value of government and other debts.

[Douglas]

Mark, the gaps in the SPY 15-minute chart below probably fall into the watch what they do, not what they say category of exuberance.  Note that a couple of previous gaps got filled in a few hours.  As to whether these gaps are irrational or not, I think that will depend on the inflation numbers over the next couple of days and maybe more importantly what the Fed minions say in response.  The gaps up may just be a completely rational display of exuberance if the Fed might hit the pause button.  

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 12 September 2022 - 02:48 PM.

[redfoliage2]

"if the Fed might hit the pause button" - more likely the Fed won't.  We will know it soon.  This is just another bear market bounce based on wishful thinking ......................... 

Edited by redfoliage2, 12 September 2022 - 03:00 PM.

[pdx5]

The fed couldn't give a rat's butt about their 2% talking-point inflation target.  Their goal is to destroy the dollar just a little bit slower than the fiat of other countries is being destroyed, with the essential purpose being to lower the real value of government and other debts.

Thereare politicians who need to stay in power, and that requires voters. 

75% of voters are feeling the pain of inflation. Voters pressure the politicians.

Politicians pressure the FED. Even if the FED does not give a rat's butt, they still feel pressure from politicians.

[steadyquest]

The $1.5 trillion Consolidated Appropriations Act
The between $386 billion and $405 billion Biden Student Debt Cancelation action
The economy-wrecking-total-farce Inflation Reduction Act

Voters seem clueless regarding inflation and its causes.  We're supposed to believe this inflation was a total surprise to the fed even though they printed it.  And government introduced massive supply-side constraints to exacerbate it - all by accident of course.  Oh - and 9/11 was not an inside job.