Was a nice rally overnight did get back in long at 3910 and took it to 3920 for a 10 point profit but that is unofficial as it wasn't posted here. Did finally get my lower buy though now having an average long of 3897. Market remains in grind mode and put options are holding their bearishness so I think were likely to see more rally as we move into the Fed's decision. I'll be surprised if they don't mention that after this increase they will rely on data to see if they need to increase more. If they stay hawkish I will say they want a depression to happen and with debt levels so high it could happen if rates go to high. We're already seeing weakness from what they have done and it hasn't even worked through the system yet....Gonna be a fun couple of days coming up for "trading", not crashing.
The BOUNCE, then the PLUNGE, again
#52
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 17,167 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 08:11 AM
Possible that this could be all the rally does ??
Was a nice rally overnight did get back in long at 3910 and took it to 3920 for a 10 point profit but that is unofficial as it wasn't posted here. Did finally get my lower buy though now having an average long of 3897. Market remains in grind mode and put options are holding their bearishness so I think were likely to see more rally as we move into the Fed's decision. I'll be surprised if they don't mention that after this increase they will rely on data to see if they need to increase more. If they stay hawkish I will say they want a depression to happen and with debt levels so high it could happen if rates go to high. We're already seeing weakness from what they have done and it hasn't even worked through the system yet....Gonna be a fun couple of days coming up for "trading", not crashing.
#53
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 17,167 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 08:16 AM
I doubt this is all the ST BOUNCE can do - overnight high and then swift drop ... but it could be the bounce is over; if it is, then my FF is all the way down, down, down... unless POWELL suddenly gets DOVISH and "IMPLY the existence of a pivot some time soon" or is ambiguous about the future FED HAWKISH stance.
Difficult POWELL could make the same error twice since he was burnt by that PIVOT-ish stance and is still trying to recover.
A fairly good Monday with a 0.49% net account gain, RISK OFF trading, took profits and trimmed LONGS. I want to hold on to my September profits so I will
continue RISK OFF and take profits quickly, cut losses, and focus on NQ daytrades, TLT CALL, maybe UVXY, and SHORT YEN trade.
#54
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 17,167 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 08:18 AM
I prefer the market drops and I build a big LONG position because I am not too keen on LONGS in a rising market in the last few trading days in September.
Not seasonally sensible to do that. Of course, there are exceptions, but I prefer not to trade or depend on EXCEPTIONS.
I doubt this is all the ST BOUNCE can do - overnight high and then swift drop ... but it could be the bounce is over; if it is, then my FF is all the way down, down, down... unless POWELL suddenly gets DOVISH and "IMPLY the existence of a pivot some time soon" or is ambiguous about the future FED HAWKISH stance.
Difficult POWELL could make the same error twice since he was burnt by that PIVOT-ish stance and is still trying to recover.
A fairly good Monday with a 0.49% net account gain, RISK OFF trading, took profits and trimmed LONGS. I want to hold on to my September profits so I will
continue RISK OFF and take profits quickly, cut losses, and focus on NQ daytrades, TLT CALL, maybe UVXY, and SHORT YEN trade.
Yesterday, I was looking for pre-FOMC rally to 3925, 3945 and we got to 3935 overnight before bulls ran out of steam #ES_F. Until FOMC tomorrow, all is noise Plan today: Bulls need >3905 to trigger back to 3925, 3945. Otherwise, its back to 3870, 3855 (gateway to next leg down)Yesterday, I was looking for pre-FOMC rally to 3925, 3945 and we got to 3935 overnight before bulls ran out of steam #ES_F. Until FOMC tomorrow, all is noise Plan today: Bulls need >3905 to trigger back to 3925, 3945. Otherwise, its back to 3870, 3855 (gateway to next leg down)
#55
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 17,167 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 08:25 AM
1-lot NQ trades since 8am.... pre-FED sessions can be low-range and too volatile
#56
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 17,167 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 08:26 AM
This looks like my plan -- LATER...
#57
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 12,463 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 08:50 AM
I think if we stay down here going into the announcement that whatever they will say will cause peak interest rates for a bit and we could see a rally start otherwise its just back to the grind. There are to many crashers out there right now as put premiums are raging bearish, good set up for a rally...
#58
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 12,463 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 08:52 AM
Average long 3890, love being in the 3800's, keep it wide...
#59
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 17,167 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 09:02 AM
Yeah, still too many shorts, a 50 to 75 point ES rally will shake out most of them
I think if we stay down here going into the announcement that whatever they will say will cause peak interest rates for a bit and we could see a rally start otherwise its just back to the grind. There are to many crashers out there right now as put premiums are raging bearish, good set up for a rally...
#60
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 17,167 posts
Member
Posted 20 September 2022 - 09:03 AM
AAPL up in a down market, will start new SHORT position, DECEMBER PUTS, above 155
