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Advantage BEARS - unfinished business below ES 3650; October bounce


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:01 PM

Fun weekend with family, also spent about 6 hours on business matters. 

Great week ended with a surprisingly profitable Friday! 

I want to trade in RISK-OFF mode during the rest of September - just 5 trading days but markets enticing and 

difficult to resist. 

However, I am partially hedged, I will keep all TLT CALLS and add more on any decline, and I will hold UVXY PUTS and add more on 

any decline. 

 

The SP500 on Friday did not make a lower closing low (below June).
But the High Yield Bond A-D Line did. That's bearish. [1/2]
But the drop has been so steep that the McClellan A-D Oscillator for these HY Bond
A-D data is now down to a really deep reading, allowing for at least a countertrend bounce. [2/2]

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:07 PM

I am also expecting a bounce, maybe a % or two but market should drop below ES 3650 and make a low below 3580, spiking down to  3550 maybe.... 

 

Buying at deep oversold levels so far indicates to me there may not be a high probability of a decline below 3550, except if the RUSSIAN invasion 

of UKRAINE drags on  & worsens. Also, CHINA seems to be more aggressive re:TAIWAN 

 

U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE BLINKEN:

China is becoming increasingly aggressive towards Taiwan.

 

 

...and TOM: 

 

With stocks in a sharp decline this week, and many recession signs, some analysts are looking for the Fed to curtail its rate hike plans early. But the commercial traders of eurodollar futures give a 10-mo. leading indication for ST rates, saying no peak until at least mid-2023.


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:09 PM

This is an extreme spike down!  Definitely, a ST bounce ...

 

McClellanOsc_1391.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:10 PM

same for other indices:

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 

This is an extreme spike down!  Definitely, a ST bounce ...

 

McClellanOsc_1391.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:14 PM

Yeah, relief rally, ST bounce, 1 to 2% or even more

 

Textbook technicals: On Sept 15, #ES_F broke down a 9 month triangle & sold 250+ points.
200 Week MA at 3580 is the target, but major support here at 3700 Plan next week: Relief rally to 3755, 3820 1st.
3690-3700 fails, we begin to 3580 direct.
Have a great weekend! Textbook technicals: On Sept 15, #ES_F broke down a 9 month triangle & sold 250+ points. 200 Week MA at 3580 is the target, but major support here at 3700 Plan next week: Relief rally to 3755, 3820 1st. 3690-3700 fails, we begin to 3580 direct.


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:18 PM

"mysterbroker" seems to be behind the curve, just as the FED was and is still....

 

 
Flash #MysteryBroker update: "See a bounce off of June low. Will decide later if it will hold or just a short-term reflex." He says he covered half his $SPY puts with the S&P 500 at 3670. Had initiated the put position at 4016.

 

Replying to
In the update, you mentioned #mysterybroker said the bottom was in, and we were facing a face-ripping rally into the end of the year!
 
 


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:22 PM

WSJ: Buying The Dip In 2022 Has The Worst Performance Since the 1930s: https://wsj.com/articles/buying-the-stock-market-dip-is-backfiring-this-year-11664064845 via FOMC policy clusterfc-k. Check. Next step: Official Burial.

 

NO,  I do not believe this unless it comes directly from BOJ!  I will short USD/YEN again, above 143.8 or even near current levels 143.55

 

JAPAN'S FORMER TOP FX DIPLOMAT SHINOHARA: JAPAN IS UNLIKELY TO ACT IN THE FX MARKET TO PROTECT PARTICULAR LINE-IN-THE-SAND LEVELS, SUCH AS 145 YEN VS DOLLAR.

 

JAPAN'S FORMER TOP FX DIPLOMAT SHINOHARA: ANY FURTHER YEN-BUYING INTERVENTION BY JAPAN WILL BE RESTRICTED IN SCOPE, WITH THE GOAL OF SMOOTHING VOLATILITY RATHER THAN DEFENDING A CERTAIN DLR / YEN LEVEL

 

 

 

"mysterbroker" seems to be behind the curve, just as the FED was and is still....

 

 
Flash #MysteryBroker update: "See a bounce off of June low. Will decide later if it will hold or just a short-term reflex." He says he covered half his $SPY puts with the S&P 500 at 3670. Had initiated the put position at 4016.

 

Replying to
In the update, you mentioned #mysterybroker said the bottom was in, and we were facing a face-ripping rally into the end of the year!
 
 

 

 

WSJ: Buying The Dip In 2022 Has The Worst Performance Since the 1930s: https://wsj.com/articles/buying-the-stock-market-dip-is-backfiring-this-year-11664064845 via FOMC policy cluster$#@%^&$&. Check. Next step: Official Burial.


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:24 PM

BEARISH, not surprising

 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    13.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    19.1%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    50.8%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    16.4%
1,193 votes·Final results


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:25 PM

and bearish bonds

 

Replying to
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    28.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    13.2%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    46.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    11.8%
661 votes·Final results
 

 

 

BEARISH, not surprising

 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    13.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    19.1%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    50.8%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    16.4%
1,193 votes·Final results

 



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 25 September 2022 - 07:26 PM

These relationships can be ST and can also change quickly ... 

 

Replying to
Fundamentals are very bearish. Earnings under pressure. Rising rates diminishes future valuations & slows growth further amidst already compressed margins. Bond yields UP so w/ERP spread $SPX $QQQ yield go up & val & price come down. Bond yields up doesn't bode well for Equities.

 

 

 

and bearish bonds

 

Replying to
Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    28.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    13.2%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    46.3%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    11.8%
661 votes·Final results
 

 

 

BEARISH, not surprising

 
Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    13.7%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    19.1%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    50.8%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    16.4%
1,193 votes·Final results