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Problem with Fed Balance Sheet Plots Which I Have Published Here


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 26 September 2022 - 02:31 AM

The following is a repeat of a note that I posted in the string under my weekly risk window post.  I thought that this was important enough to repeat.  linrom1 gave me an important accounting lesson.

 

linrom1, thank you very much for taking the time to respond to my query.  I am constantly trying to improve my understanding of what the Fed is actually doing versus what they are saying since they have an outsized impact on both the stock and currency markets that I participate in.   

 

I mistakenly thought that the Fed would immediately book sales/purchases of securities, but for some reason that I don't yet understand they take 1 to 3 months to settle these trades and then book them on their balance sheet.  So, apparently the data that I am seeing in the plot that I have attached above from the Fed site actually is old data only reflecting the purchases/sales made as of June or July before the heavier run off.    

 

Apparently, the Fed does publish the current security purchases and sales each week, they just don't "book" them on the balance sheet, so they don't appear on the graph that I have been watching.  I have been poking around the Fed's web site trying to find where they publish the current security sales, so I can see in real time what they are doing to their balance sheet instead of waiting a month or more for it to appear in the H.4.1 publication. When I find this data, I will update the plot to show what the Fed is actually doing NOW.  

 

I apologize to anyone who has seen the plots that I have published and thought due to my rantings that they reflected current Fed data.  My bad.  Old data, unlike old scotch or wine, is not good.

 

Thanks again for the education.  Like I said, I don't have an accounting background, so I'm constantly learning.  

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 26 September 2022 - 02:31 AM.


#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 27 September 2022 - 12:26 PM

They're government numbers. We can expect them to be bad, or old. :)

 

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#3 Douglas

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Posted 27 September 2022 - 02:01 PM

... or most likely both bad and old.  I'm still looking for the current Fed security sales numbers.  The only data that I've found so far is at:  www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/treasury-securities which doesn't appear to show all Fed security sales since the last sale noted was in June.  If anyone reading this knows where I can find the current Fed debt security sales data, please post in a comment. Thanks.

 

Regards,

Douglas