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Posted 01 October 2022 - 10:05 PM
On January 3, 2001 the Fed pivoted from 6.5 percent to 6.0 percent. It took 13 rate decreases to get to 1.00 on June 25, 2003. On Sept 18,2007 the fed pivoted from 5.25 to 4.75 percent. It took 10 decreases to get to 0.25 on Dec 16,2008. Just because the Fed makes a pivot does not mean it is a bottom in the stock market. If this is like these 2 times we have a long way to go.
So long as unemployment stays record low, there is little chance inflation drops quickly.
How so?
Fib
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Posted 01 October 2022 - 11:04 PM
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Posted 02 October 2022 - 07:57 AM
The charts I use for long term turns have all turned down but one. UTIL has not yet. These charts are monthly with a 10EMA and a 12EMA. Crossover on Spx, Dow, Russell, Sox , highyield bonds, Transports have all made the crossover- only Utilities has not. In 2000/2008 UTIL was the last to turn. If/when it does you can stick a fort in the market for at least 1-2 years with a recession that rivals the last 2(2000/2008) or much worse.
Edited by MDurkin, 02 October 2022 - 07:58 AM.
Member
Posted 02 October 2022 - 08:08 AM
If you really believe at unenployment #, why we have not a better GDP? And also who will buy all this merchandise that is been produce?
Carl
Edited by Carl, 02 October 2022 - 08:13 AM.
Member
Posted 02 October 2022 - 10:35 AM
The charts I use for long term turns have all turned down but one. UTIL has not yet. These charts are monthly with a 10EMA and a 12EMA. Crossover on Spx, Dow, Russell, Sox , highyield bonds, Transports have all made the crossover- only Utilities has not. In 2000/2008 UTIL was the last to turn. If/when it does you can stick a fort in the market for at least 1-2 years with a recession that rivals the last 2(2000/2008) or much worse.
That September monthly candle marks the turn on Util...just starting to play catch up withe the REITs.
Very ugly 2 combo candles there..it is done.
IF market bounces, could possibly see back test of 200 Day, as it rolls over. But my guess at this point that it will not get that far on a bounce, and is about to enter rapid rupture mode once it gets though the 900.
My guess is 940 max on any bounce.
Edited by K Wave, 02 October 2022 - 10:36 AM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 02 October 2022 - 10:39 AM
BTC once again right at the edge back under 19.2....
this wedgie is reasonably likely to bust wide open real soon now...
and right now, bears have it lined up in their favor....see if they can do it...
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 02 October 2022 - 10:50 AM
I'm old enough to remember when Hang Seng was all the rage...
Coming soon to a global market near you....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 02 October 2022 - 10:57 AM
And look at just how similar HangSeng Weekly looks to US indices daily now when it was at the 2300 level at 900 week....yep, the 900 transition works on all time frames...
And with Rusty now well under, a back test is about as much as bulls can hope for, before escalation comes...
A few more days and SPX will also be unsavable...once things get a certain certain distance away from the 900 in this classic bear transition pattern, much more likely the transition will stick, especially after the biggest funny money bubble in history...
Edited by K Wave, 02 October 2022 - 10:59 AM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
Member
Posted 02 October 2022 - 11:04 AM
If you really believe at unenployment #, why we have not a better GDP? And also who will buy all this merchandise that is been produce?
Carl
Wow...common sense...a rare thing these days.
Post election "adjustments" coming to the employment numbers....you can pretty much take that one to the bank.
I am old enough to remember the chip SHORTAGE
https://www.philstoc...on-supply-glut/
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 02 October 2022 - 11:29 AM
If you really believe at unenployment #, why we have not a better GDP? And also who will buy all this merchandise that is been produce?
Carl
Shortage of workers does not equate to high production. Production would be higher if workers were available to man the full production lines. Between the generous unemployment benefits and the multiple waves of money distributed during covid pandemic, and the long shutdowns, looks like the workers have acquired a taste for not dragging their butt to work every morning. High cost of filling up the tank is perhaps another factor inducing workers to choose unemployment benefits over driving to work. Add to that fear of getting infected with covid at work.
Sometimes one has to think on a deeper level to understand what is going on.
Edited by pdx5, 02 October 2022 - 11:33 AM.
