426 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

A September to remember, or for some, to forget!

 

I do not forecast a V-shaped IT or LT bottom, maybe a V-shaped ST bottom within a complex 

bottoming process than can take 2 or 3 months. 

 

Here is a famous forecaster:

 

@SuburbanDrone

·

15m

 

Sept. 11th, 2022: Cramer: I Still Believe We've Seen The Lows https://cnbc.com/2022/09/11/jim-cramer-heres-why-weve-seen-the-lows-of-this-tough-market.html… Friday Close Cramer: It's Way Too Early To Call A Bottom https://cnbc.com/2022/09/30/cramer-charts-suggest-its-way-too-early-for-the-market-to-rebound.html…

@SuburbanDrone

·

15m

 

Sept. 11th, 2022: Cramer: I Still Believe We've Seen The Lows https://cnbc.com/2022/09/11/jim-cramer-heres-why-weve-seen-the-lows-of-this-tough-market.html… Friday Close Cramer: It's Way Too Early To Call A Bottom https://cnbc.com/2022/09/30/cramer-charts-suggest-its-way-too-early-for-the-market-to-rebound.html…

[dTraderB]

Holding a medium-sized ST position but I want to increase this now that September is past us and the markets are showing signs of 

extreme stress and bearishness.  

I am not going to hold for too long, not waiting for THE BIG ONE, but accumulating profits, opening & closing, with hedges, 

and a few HIGH RISK TRADES. I will hold the bulk of my TLT CALL positions, closing and opening about 10 to 20% in each cycle.

I did not intend to build a SHORT POSITION at the end of September but I changed my strategy as the markets began to drop rapidly last week. 

 

72 TLT CALLS

34  UVXY PUTS

 

2 ES & 2 NQ HEDGE SHORT

54 SPY CALLS

60 QQQ CALLS

18 IWM CALLS

 

Several other smaller holdings in CALLS, PUTS, ETFs, and stocks: XLF, INDA, NVDA, AMD. C. BAC. TESLA, AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL 

TESLA  and several others. I never intended to buy Chinese stocks but started a small position in NIO and will consider others. 

Also, will look at a few Indian & European ETFs/stocks.

[dTraderB]

I will again open SHORT positions in USD/YEN and possibly LONG in EUR

Not touching that Brit Pound

 

@AdamMancini4

·

17m

 

Many trying to catch a bottom in #ES_F, but the setups for lows is usually the *exact* same: Breaks down a prior multiday low, runs stops, then within a few days (often same day) reclaims it. Jan, March, May & June bear market rallies all began this way. No rush, Needs>3635 now

Quote Tweet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Adam Mancini

 

@AdamMancini4

·

Oct 1

Have a great weekend! Since Sept 13 top, #ES_F is 3 weeks red, with only 3 green days. Magnet? 3575. The 200 WMA + Channel support from 2020 low. Big test Plan Next Week: Sell to 3575, bounce shot. Bulls need >3635 to see relief leg to 3700, 3745. 3575 fails, we see 3480 direct

[dTraderB]

He turned bearish at such a low level?  Contrarian me says the BOTTOM is being formed now.... 

CRAMER is also bearish.... good signs for the BULLS but it will be a long process, back and forth, up & dowm

 

@SuburbanDrone

·

8m

 

JP Morgan's ultra bullish Kolanovic just turned bearish: https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-30/jp-morgan-s-kolanovic-sounds-alarm-on-outlook-as-war-escalates… "His previously positive outlook was based on an assumption that central banks will not make a grave policy error, that the war in Europe will de-escalate" Capitulation phase is beginning.

[K Wave]

The Tesla miss could be the trigger....we find out soon how the reaction is...

[K Wave]

 

 Friday Close Cramer: It's Way Too Early To Call A Bottom https://cnbc.com/2022/09/30/cramer-charts-suggest-its-way-too-early-for-the-market-to-rebound.html…

 

Now this one gets my attention....but there is always the blind squirrel thing.

 

On watch for anything showing sign of fumble by bears.

 

IF TSLA does not drop big on the miss news, could be one of those signs.
 

[dTraderB]

I voted BULLISH TECHNICAL    (wtf, are you insane?)

@Callum_Thomas

·

Oct 1

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  13.3%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  16.9%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  53.4%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  16.3%

1,087 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

Also in the minority here  - open is here!

 

@Callum_Thomas

·

Oct 1

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]

•  

  Bullish (Fundamentals)

  29.3%
•  

  Bullish (Technicals)

  16%
•  

  Bearish (Fundamentals)

  44.2%
•  

  Bearish (Technicals)

  10.5%

751 votes·Final results

[dTraderB]

Canary in the coalmine??  Credit Suisse CDS issue ...

 

(Reuters) - Credit Suisse executives spent the weekend reassuring large clients, counterparties and investors about its liquidity and capital position, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

A spokesman for Credit Suisse declined to comment on the report when contacted by Reuters.

Executives made the calls after spreads Credit Suisse credit default swaps (CDS), which offer protection against a company defaulting, rose sharply on Friday in an indication of investor concerns, the newspaper said.

Credit Suisse five-year credit default swaps (CDS) jumped 6 basis point to close to 247 bps on Friday, the highest level in at le

ast 10 years, S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) Market Intelligence data showed.

Credit Suisse CDS began the year at 57 bps.

 

https://www.investin...pike-ft-2903501

[dTraderB]

This poll is bullish... are they just plain wrong recently or they are frontrunning  the reversal? 

 

@hmeisler

3 of the last 4 weeks folks have voted up. Prior to that it was 7 straight down.

 

 

Saturday Poll. The next 100 points for the S&P?

•  

  UP

  52.8%
•  

  DOWN

  47.2%

4,380 votes·Final results