426 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

UP on Friday? 

from -239 to -212

 

[dTraderB]

VIX was down on FRIDAY?? 

Strange

Market Summary > VIX

31.62−0.22 (0.69%) 

30 Sept, 3:15 pm GMT-5

 

UP on Friday? 

from -239 to -212

 

[dTraderB]

Active market -- NQ, and also USD/YEN

 

"Currently, resistance is in the 3681SPX region. Initial support is in the 3550SPX region, with support below that in the 3430SPX region. There is a pattern in place which can hold the 3550 support in the coming week. But, if we are unable to move back over the 3681SPX resistance, then we can certainly continue down to the secondary support region in the 3400/3430SPX region.

While I clearly cannot tell you exactly how the market will react in the coming week, I have provided you with the turning points I am watching to determine from where the next major rally may begin.

But, the most important factor that I will be watching over the coming weeks is if that next rally is impulsive or not. If the next rally through 3681SPX takes shape as a 5-wave structure, then I will retain my expectations to rally to 5150+ to complete the bull market off the 2009 low, after which we usher in a 7-20 year bear market.

However, if the next rally is clearly corrective in nature, then I will have to strongly consider that the bull market off the 2009 low has topped earlier and lower than I initially expected. That would mean we have potentially begun at least a 7/8 year bear market, but which could more likely last as long as 20 years."

 

 https://seekingalpha...ly-major-bottom

[dTraderB]

@Callum_Thomas

 

 

6. Welcome to October: "major market bottoms have occurred in October more than any other month" (of course doesn't preclude further downside!) h/t

@AriWald

via

@SamRo

$SPX $SPY

 

 

 

[K Wave]

Watching the Rusty 4 hour momo here to see if it can complete the rollover into panic wave into mid October.

 

If not, and it climbs out over Zero, likely going to 1780-1800 area...

 

That little double bottom made here over night may be key...if it does not hold, acceleration could be imminent, as we are right at a big cliff edge here.

 

 

Here is 15 min look...under that double bottom is most likely trouble now.

Still a possible complex bottom formation as long as it holds.

 

 

 

[dTraderB]

Do not think it will be a V-bottom. 

@AdamMancini4

 

 

After only 3 green days in last 14, #ES_F hit *major* support at 3575. I was looking for "sell to 3575, bounce shot" and we sold to 3571 & 52 point pop. This is the shot for bulls Plan today: As long as above 3600-08, 3670 in play (>3635 rally trigger). 3600 fails, we see 3575

[12SPX]

Well isn't that interesting another Monday morning with no crash in sight.  Even more interesting is that tesla is getting slammed and Apple is down on the day and futures are up strongly.  As everyone knows I've been saying were building a short term bottom but it's taking longer than I have anticipated but nonetheless I've still been making money on my longs this past couple weeks because were more in grind mode than crash mode.  I left early on Friday as I was thinking we were just going to continue higher so when I checked the market and we were lower I was able to add to my long at 3655 and bring it down to 3628 and when we tanked last night I added a bit more to bring it down to 3622.  Still have my ndx long trade and added to it bringing it down to 11205 but as I've said that's a longer hold anyhow. Should be another fun week of trading, watching those bonds closely.  One thing for sure is that it has been incredible for selling massive put premium....

[dTraderB]

NY TIMES:

Credit Suisse’s rocky ride continues

Shares in Credit Suisse tumbled over 8 percent this morning, after the Swiss bank spent the weekend battling rumors about its financial weaknesses, despite assurances from its C.E.O. on Friday. Rumors among traders that the firm’s liquidity was in trouble sent its credit default swaps — securities that essentially gauge market perceptions of a company’s financial health — surging to a record, indicating deep concern.

Credit Suisse gave executives talking points to reassure wealth management clients. The memo, which was sent over the weekend and was reviewed by DealBook, told executives to acknowledge the bank’s stock drop, but to add that the bank had $100 billion to cover losses, and that it had nearly $238 billion in high-quality liquid assets at the end of its second quarter. “Speculating that we have a liquidity issue simply would be completely false,” read one of the talking points.

But Credit Suisse has given investors reasons to worry over the years. It’s principally a question of risk management: The firm took hits from the collapses of the investment firm Archegos, which cost it $5.5 billion, and of the lender Greensill, which led to another $1.7 billion in losses. Both scandals led to questions about Credit Suisse’s risk management, whose weaknesses were confirmed by an internal report.

[dTraderB]

Bullish October seasonality in a midterm year

But, this is a unique year, higher volatility & risk, so I am trading VST and ST 

 

Well isn't that interesting another Monday morning with no crash in sight.  Even more interesting is that tesla is getting slammed and Apple is down on the day and futures are up strongly.  As everyone knows I've been saying were building a short term bottom but it's taking longer than I have anticipated but nonetheless I've still been making money on my longs this past couple weeks because were more in grind mode than crash mode.  I left early on Friday as I was thinking we were just going to continue higher so when I checked the market and we were lower I was able to add to my long at 3655 and bring it down to 3628 and when we tanked last night I added a bit more to bring it down to 3622.  Still have my ndx long trade and added to it bringing it down to 11205 but as I've said that's a longer hold anyhow. Should be another fun week of trading, watching those bonds closely.  One thing for sure is that it has been incredible for selling massive put premium....

[12SPX]

There, we go profit stop 3625, buy below for the crash open....