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Complex Bottoming, Part 2: Nearer to a sustainable LOW


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#21 K Wave

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 11:33 AM

https://www.ig.com/e...end-wall-street

 

Down 150 pre-open...nearly 60% of folks long.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#22 K Wave

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 11:35 AM

 

Interesting....  

 
Replying to
Here's a 10 year perspective of $CPCE

 

Yup. accelerate or die for bears...highest risk of acceleration here in a while.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#23 dTraderB

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 11:40 AM

Weekly SYSTEMS & COMPUTERS updates done, LATER.

 

Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed. But stock investors can start the week worrying about September's PPI (Wed.) and CPI (Thu.). Both should confirm that they peaked earlier this year, but the moderation in inflation in both may not be enough to stop the Fed from concluding that more rate hikes are needed to subdue inflationary pressures. The PPI may show more moderation than the CPI, which includes a couple of rent components that remain troublesome.

On Wednesday, mortgage applications for new purchases for the 10/7 week are likely to remain in the freefall of the past couple of weeks, which can be attributed to the plunge in the Housing Affordability Index, which will be updated through August on Friday.

Tuesday's release of September's NFIB small business owners survey is likely to paint a recessionary picture of the economy from their perspective. The survey is likely to confirm that fewer of them are raising their selling prices.

September's retail sales (Fri.) may weigh on Q3's GDP if consumers are shifting from spending on goods to (offsetting) spending on services. The same day, the Consumer Sentiment Index for the first half of October may weaken in response to rising gasoline prices.

 

https://www.yardeniq...-october-10-15/



#24 dTraderB

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 11:41 AM

haha ... this can be a good indicator but extremely fickle... I traded a few times 4 or 5 years ago

 

https://www.ig.com/e...end-wall-street

 

Down 150 pre-open...nearly 60% of folks long.



#25 K Wave

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 11:43 AM

 

well... I prefer not to buy because of these reasons etc.... but I may do so in this one:  OXY

 

Why would these guys ask the federal government for permission to purchase an additional 200 million shares, if they didn’t have the intent to do just that? Doesn’t seem too reasonable to me.

At current prices, this would represent another $14 billion of purchases.

To put the materiality of this into perspective, OXY trades an average daily volume of about 25 million shares, or $1.75 billion in market value.

This means it would take Berkshire 8 full days, assuming 100% of the volume belonged to them (not a realistic assumption), to amass their remaining 20% of outstanding shares.

The bottom line is, that's a whole lot of buying.

This kind of institutional accumulation can tilt the supply and demand dynamic for a security and create a serious edge for investors who are paying attention. Talk about having a good "support" system.

In the case of OXY, Berkshire has been putting a relentless bid in the share price all year. With all this potential buying left to do, we don’t think that is going to change anytime soon.

But, it gets even better…

We know exactly where Berkshire is likely to step in and act as support for the stock.

Here’s a look at the chart of OXY dating back to when Berkshire began to accumulate shares. We’ve even highlighted exactly where those purchases took place:

 

Notice a trend?

Berkshire comes out and puts a floor in the stock every time it falls below $60/share!

 

I still see potential for Big Time H&S near weekly resistance zone as Crude comes up into resistance area.

 

IF it manages to go past right shoulder zone and crude can climb above what should be big resistance directly overhead, then could be OXY will head higher.

Until that happens, $40 could be more likely target than $100

 

oxy.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#26 K Wave

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 11:49 AM

Watch the 20 yr on the re-open...looks potentially pre-explosive for final run manic run to the upside...but...hard down straight away could change that in a hurry...

 

20.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#27 K Wave

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 12:21 PM

 

haha ... this can be a good indicator but extremely fickle... I traded a few times 4 or 5 years ago

 

https://www.ig.com/e...end-wall-street

 

Down 150 pre-open...nearly 60% of folks long.

 

now 62% long...will be interesting to see if the bull faith is misguided or not.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#28 K Wave

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 12:26 PM

After a month and a half predominately between 19-20K, that big red hourly candle on BTC could be the decider.

 

Bears get benefit of doubt below, but if bulls can reclaim it, then bears might get overrun...

 

btc.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#29 pdx5

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 12:28 PM

OPEC cutting oil production by 2 million barrels/day just ensured that inflation will be with us longer.

99% of cars and trucks are powered by oil. Price of energy affects everything including cost of internet.

Although internet does not use oil, goods sold on internet are transported by oil consuming vehicles.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#30 K Wave

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Posted 09 October 2022 - 01:31 PM

Here's one the Gamma Queen highlighted as I was looking at her feed.

 

This could get Ugly below about 107, like epic short stuff....see no reason this one won't test the Covid lows and beyond along with so many other fad stocks. META just took 'em out last week, as did ROKU.

 

And sub-30 is a looooong way from here...Have a feeling the Nov 2 earnings report might shock a few folks..if they don't warn before then. ETSY stuff a definite "can do without", when you can barely pay for gas and food. And FDX Holiday outlook sure is not very Rosy.

 

Anyway, definitely on my Radar now...as always will let the chart guide me...but this could be a real humdinger....

 

etsy.png

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy