According to my risk summation system, the days this coming week with the highest risk of a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday October 17th, Wednesday the 19th and Friday the 21st, an "M" or "W" shaped week.
Last week the Monday risk window tagged what appeared to be a low but turned out to be just a three-day floor until the fireworks started during the Thursday risk window which sported what I believe to be the biggest reversal point rally ever in the DJIA.
The brief visit past the late September low in the DJIA last Thursday drew a firestorm of intervention for some reason or another when someone or some group with very deep pockets who snatched market victory back out of the bear's jaws of defeat. My primary E-Wave count looks a lot more in doubt given this big reversal. This coming week's action should either resurrect it or put the final nail in its coffin.
A crash risk window opens up this coming Friday October 21st. Thanks to prompting by beta, I went back and double checked my notes on the risk of one of these crashes occurring and found that it was actually something on the order of 1 in 240 rather than the much more frightening 1 in 30 that I first erroneously mis-stated. Not very probable, but not zero. It seems likely that the prestidigitation of a big black swan is required for this down draft to occur, so this coming week watch the sky for this fowl black harbinger of lower prices. If this winged bear emissary fails to appear by next weekend, I'll probably need to heed Don's advice and watch the sky for soaring prices instead.
Is it my imagination, or is government disfunction now the new normal? The kabuki theater going on in the government of my adopted home, the UK, this past couple of weeks has rivalled the insanity which has become commonplace in Washington. I know major institutions will be wrecked during this Fourth Turning, but I thought the wreck would be an accidental crash, not the elected pilots flying the government planes straight into a mountain.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 15 October 2022 - 09:47 AM.