14 replies to this topic

[slupert]

Positive Divergences are Everywhere - YouTube

[slupert]

I still see it going lower before higher. I think we might finlly get our capitulation. (JMHO)

[K Wave]

I still see it going lower before higher. I think we might finlly get our capitulation. (JMHO)

IF we get that capitulation...then "higher" might only be back to test the breakdown level.

 

Once you seriously bust the 900 day MA, you are in intermediate to longer term bear.

 

And with the funny money Covid bubble blown being every bit as bad as 1929 (great chart of this somewhere I saw that I did not save), as you can see below, once below the 900, could be a LONG time until back above.

 

No one seems to have any idea that this situation could be  A LOT different than anything seen in the past 40 years.

They may be just about to get a BIG surprise.

 

Again...this is HUGE pivot area...and IF bulls do lose it...be prepared for a possible sea change from the last 40 years.

Seriously, 2008 could be a picnic compared to what is likely coming if we break down here.

 

Edited by K Wave, 16 October 2022 - 11:09 AM.

[Chilidawgz]

The market is extremely oversold looking at many measures. Here is one

 

[SteveB]

Chili Im a fan of yours and I dont fade you. But a rally from here suggests were still in the denial phase of a bear market. That was evident on Thursday. Then the bulls got their heads chopped off on Friday. Hard to tell if that changed the phase from denial to panic yet. If so down we go regardless of a toppy VIX. A VIX in the low 30s has been hit several times. But thats not very high for a real bottom. Perhaps another ST bottom again, sure.

[EntropyModel]

 

I still see it going lower before higher. I think we might finlly get our capitulation. (JMHO)

IF we get that capitulation...then "higher" might only be back to test the breakdown level.

 

Once you seriously bust the 900 day MA, you are in intermediate to longer term bear.

 

And with the funny money Covid bubble blown being every bit as bad as 1929 (great chart of this somewhere I saw that I did not save), as you can see below, once below the 900, could be a LONG time until back above.

 

No one seems to have any idea that this situation could be  A LOT different than anything seen in the past 40 years.

They may be just about to get a BIG surprise.

 

Again...this is HUGE pivot area...and IF bulls do lose it...be prepared for a possible sea change from the last 40 years.

Seriously, 2008 could be a picnic compared to what is likely coming if we break down here.

 

...

 

 

👍

[pdx5]

As bad as inflation is and real estate is starting to nose dive, I cannot see a dive in stocks below SPX 3000 through 2023. Reasons are many but main one is the level of M1 money. Money in circulation should not just disappear. For every buyer, ther is a seller. People's net worth holdings instocks and real-estate can go down, but unless someone is using money paper bills to keep warm in winter, cash stays in circulation. Bargain hunters (me included) will come in droves below 3000. Only serious black swan event which could cause stock market crash further down would be if Russia uses tactical nukes in Ukraine.

[Chilidawgz]

Chili Im a fan of yours and I dont fade you. But a rally from here suggests were still in the denial phase of a bear market. That was evident on Thursday. Then the bulls got their heads chopped off on Friday. Hard to tell if that changed the phase from denial to panic yet. If so down we go regardless of a toppy VIX. A VIX in the low 30s has been hit several times. But thats not very high for a real bottom. Perhaps another ST bottom again, sure.

Oh it's still a bear market but we get rallies even in bear markets.

[brucekeller]

Retail P/C for last week combined was over 3x too, highest it's ever been. 

[K Wave]

Posted on the other board...

 

Definitely do not overstay welcome on short side if markets do not break like right from today's open...

 

I always follow charts, but when sentiment gets THIS extreme, if chart starts to go up here, may run for a bit.

AGAIN...HUGE pivot zone here...

 

wow...but still does not rule out final panic low first.

 

https://twitter.com/...673831202058242

 

Edited by K Wave, 17 October 2022 - 08:05 AM.