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Complex Bottoming, Part 3: RALLY


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#21 K Wave

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 07:28 AM

First sign of a potential break on that 20 yr rate....

 

see if they can make it stick


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#22 12SPX

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 08:19 AM

Slow start this morning as we went to see a Fleetwood Mac tribute band last night!  Must say they did an awesome job absolutely playing and sounding identical, even their movements were the same, was a great concert.  Followed the market all night going into bed and not surprised it was another up Sunday.  Put prices were way to extreme Friday as I said so not surprising at all.  Can't believe how fast the shift has been of late but that's how grind markets go.  The big question is will it hold after the cash open.  For now I'm putting my profit stop at 3640. 



#23 K Wave

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 08:21 AM

Still want to see Dow get a foothold above 30500 before I declare any bull victory....but a foothold above 30k would be a good start.

 

dow.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#24 dTraderB

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 08:24 AM

Simple basic TA: last week's low and high now define ST support & resistance. Friday's close is the immediate Support. 

Most likely, choppy trading in this 200-point ES range but breakout above ES 3710 this week and can rally to 3780-3800 

 

Below last week's low will lead to a plunge to test ES 3380



#25 12SPX

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 08:40 AM

Wow not much selling at the start but sentiment is extreme, options were extremely bent in one direction, bond yields are falling.  I would watch the 10 year close for clues of giving it all back and the Vix.  For now it looks like no one is believing in this rally and the market will give it up.  Could be possible but odds still favor more upside as we leave the dreaded October worry warts.  It's to bad people can't go back in time and relive 1987 with me, was an incredible time to buy and the volatility after was incredible.  Profit stop 3660 and even my Ndx trade, profit stop 11030....



#26 12SPX

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 08:46 AM

The most interesting thing is that we are now at the initial trading bottom of my expiration cycle numbers for this October so if we finished the week here it would just be another normal cycle, last week we are at extreme levels.  This is all shaping up for an interesting November cycle.  Profit stop 3670



#27 K Wave

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 08:55 AM

As I said before, I have had my eye on Google in this area for clues..

 

Attempting liftoff from divergent test of 900 day....for bulls, does not get a lot better than this...

 

HUGE pivot now set on Google...as long it holds after earnings, bulls may have a nice bottom in place.

 

But if it does blow this pivot after earnings (or before), then bulls would likely have big problems.

 

googl.png


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#28 K Wave

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 08:58 AM

Oopsie on 20 yr turn attempt...

 

Bonds not outta trouble just yet.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#29 12SPX

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 09:03 AM

Yup watching that 10-year....



#30 dTraderB

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Posted 17 October 2022 - 09:07 AM

Will add 1 ES & 1 NQ HEDGE SHORT between ES 3695 & 3710 if traded

I wanted to close some LONGS and start winding down this big LONG position but I will wait at least until 2pm today

So, I will add a 3rd HEDGE if market trades in that range ... preferably above 3700