4 replies to this topic

[bigbud]

[bigbud]

[Douglas]

bigbud, thanks for the cycle analysis update for the US market. 

 

What's happening closer to home with the Norwegian stock market and currency?  It takes more than 10 Krone to buy the Euro, and the NORW exchange traded fund has done worse than the US market.  Why?   I thought you guys were fairly energy independent with oil from the North Sea and plenty of hydro for electricity to keep the lights on for most of the year.  Also, your 10-year bond at 3.77% yield is about the same as the Eurozone average rate.   Why the weak currency and stock market?

 

It's been a few years since I was in Oslo regularly for work, so I'm a bit out of touch with what's going on there.

 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[bigbud]

Hi Douglas
That Norwegian ETF was interesting... you know, measured in Norwegian kroner, our marked almost made an ATH in August, and we are just down some 13% from ATH now. Strong as hell But in USD...not

 

My experience is that the NOK weakens much in bear markets. Also oil is often a late mover, and Norway tends to top out late. In 2008 we made an ATH i May, while US had allredy been trending down for 6 months. Think our currency also topped out around May 2008. Then the NOK-USD fell some 40% I think, and the stock market 60%. So measured in USD I guess out market fell almost 80% or so...

 

This time our currency began weakening before the oil and stock market topped... but I guess it is the same mechanism. The NOK is not a big currency, and when trouble is around, it tends to weaken a lot. Foreigners want out before it is too late... specially if they fear something like 2008 (-80%)

But the NOK started to weaken allready at the oil-crisis in 2014-15. Not quite sure why it has stayed weak since then. Currency is not my thing... I stick to stock market an cycles 

 

Cheers

 

Edited by bigbud, 23 October 2022 - 08:12 AM.

[bigbud]