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FED Tilts, BULLS exhale, ST BOTTOM in place - how high?


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:44 PM

Not a FED PIVOT but a hint of dovishness, possibility of even 50 bps next week and then in 2023 25bps. 

 

Not a PIVOT, not a full-fledged PIVOT, but merely the suggestion of a reduction in hiked from 75bps to 50 and then possibly 25, and the Dollar down slightly from the highs in recent weeks.  

 

The main reason is the higher probability of a recession in the US and even worse economic conditions in the rest of the world. And, of course, EUROPE and ASIA preparing for a difficult Winter.

 

Friday was a huge reversal - another rapid reversal, although not a violent one as the previous one. 

 

BUT, these two reversals inform us of the HIGH PROBABILITY BUYING zones or reversal regions aka as LOWS or BOTTOMS. 

YES, we now know BUYERS are waiting for those lower areas to engage in FOMO buying, and even more BULLISH is Friday's reversal zone is much higher than the previous one. 

 

So then this is a sure thing? NO WAY! 

ES 3800 is again a major resistance point, 3880 and then all the way to 4K.

 

And, the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the worsening situation there, rumors of Chinese intentions to invade Taiwan, fears of  tightening in the Treasuries market - not only in the US, and a weak global economy struggling to recover. 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:46 PM

This is new NEWS to me:

 

The U.S. economy is expected to have grown robustly in a sharp rebound from the first half of the year, but most Americans are unlikely to notice anything about the turnaround.

Persistent inflation continues to weigh heavily on both economic growth and household budgets, and has become a key flash point ahead of the midterm elections. A strong reading on the next gross domestic product report, scheduled to be released Thursday, would be welcome news

https://www.washingt...onomy-inflation



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:48 PM

BIG profits in SHORT USD/YEN trades Friday

Back up to 148, will start new SHORT 



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:51 PM

Fed May Be Dialing Back On Hawkish Squawking

https://www.yardeniq...-blackout-rule/



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:52 PM

"The S&P 500 rallied 2.37% to 3,752.75 on Friday as the 2-year US Treasury note yield fell to 4.50% from 4.61% on Thursday (chart). The happy day's performance was sparked by Friday's WSJ article titled "Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes." It was written by the Journal's ace Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos.

Once the blackout period ended one day after  the FOMC's September 20-21 meeting, numerous Fed officials depressed investors by repeating the Fed's latest party line: "We are going to raise interest rates until we see the inflation is clearly coming down."

Nick's article suggested that some Fed officials are realizing that the party line might be excessively hawkish. The markets had been discounting that the FOMC would hike the federal funds rate two more times by 75bps at each of the FOMC’s last two meetings this year with more rate hikes next year. Nick’s article indicated that some Fed officials wanted to discuss a 50bps hike during December, rather than 75bps one, and a pause early next year.

Indeed, on Friday afternoon, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said, "I hear a lot of concern right now that we are just going to go for broke. But that's actually not how we, I, think about policy at all." She said, "We have to make sure we are doing everything in our power not to overtighten." She added, "The time is now to start planning for stepping down."

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet by roughly $95 billion per month (chart).

Now for some really good news: The latest blackout period starts today and lasts through November 3. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will start squawking again at his press conference on November 2."

Fed May Be Dialing Back On Hawkish Squawking

https://www.yardeniq...-blackout-rule/

 



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:55 PM

On Oct. 20, I wrote about the Coppock Curve for the DJIA at https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/coppock_curve_still_working_on_a_major_bottom_signal/. Here is that same indicator for T-Bond prices. [1/2]
 
The T-Bond Coppock Curve is already pretty deeply negative. But the price has to close the month above the blue line in this chart to turn up the Coppock Curve, and generate the "buy" signal. [2/2]
 
 
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
hN65_xGU_normal.jpg
 
 
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Free stuff is nice. The good stuff is here: https://mcoscillator.com/market_reports/


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:55 PM

https://www.mcoscill..._bottom_signal/

 

On Oct. 20, I wrote about the Coppock Curve for the DJIA at https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/coppock_curve_still_working_on_a_major_bottom_signal/. Here is that same indicator for T-Bond prices. [1/2]
 
The T-Bond Coppock Curve is already pretty deeply negative. But the price has to close the month above the blue line in this chart to turn up the Coppock Curve, and generate the "buy" signal. [2/2]
 
 
hN65_xGU_normal.jpg
 
 
Replying to
Free stuff is nice. The good stuff is here: https://mcoscillator.com/market_reports/

 



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 04:57 PM

Above  ZERO now, could rally to aboce 200 and stay there for the rest of October

 

McClellanOsc_1411.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 05:07 PM

Slightly NET LONG at the CLOSE on Friday with almost total SHORT hedges on overall LONG position. 

Watching markets for a day or two before any major new LONG positions or closing existing one. 

Focusing on NQ daytrades, YEN, TLT and new UVXY CALL position if it drops below 10

 

I voted BULLISH technicals in this poll; also I am bullish fundamentals 

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    24.2%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    23.2%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    43.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    9.2%
811 votes·37 minutes left
 

 

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    24.2%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    23.2%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    43.4%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    9.2%
811 votes·37 minutes left


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 23 October 2022 - 05:09 PM

I also voted BULLISH TECHINCALS in this equities poll

 

Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
  •  
    Bullish (Fundamentals)
    16.8%
  •  
    Bullish (Technicals)
    32.5%
  •  
    Bearish (Fundamentals)
    42.7%
  •  
    Bearish (Technicals)
    8%
996 votes·38 minutes left