3 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Below we have lined up the daily chart of VIX for the first eleven months of the 2007-2009 Primary Bear Market on the top frame with the first eleven months of the 2022-2024 Primary Bear market immediately below. As can be seen, the peaks and troughs for VIX lined up at the same points over those eleven months- nearly perfectly. The third chart continues the 2007-2009 Primary Bear Market into the twelfth month,

*If* this nearly perfect analog were to continue right from here, we would see a powerful upward explosion in VIX starting this next week and taking VIX some 500%+ into January 2023.

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[Rogerdodger]

VIX near level that's marked top for stock-market bounces in 2022

 

VIX Inches Closer to Key Level After Fed Meeting Minutes

[Chilidawgz]

[Rogerdodger]

WSJ: Yield Curve Inversion Reaches New Extremes

Unusual relationship between Treasury yields reflects investors’ bets on easing inflation and future rate cuts

 

Investors think the Federal Reserve is close to winning its inflation battle regardless of the cost to economic activity.

A scenario in which short-term yields exceed long-term yields is known on Wall Street as an inverted yield curve and is often seen as a red flag that a recession is looming.

 

In 2021, officials thought that high inflation would be temporary. But a year later, it was still near a four-decade high.

 

President Carter (1977-1981) recommended driving slow, buying sweaters and firewood instead of fuel. (Sounds very familiar)

Remember: "Freeze a Yankee, Drive 75 and freeze 'em alive"

 

"What's past is prologue" is a quotation by William Shakespeare from his play The Tempest. In contemporary use, the phrase stands for the idea that history sets the context for the present.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 30 November 2022 - 12:34 PM.