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BULLs grinding up to 2023 Q1 top -- beware of GEOPOLITICAL events


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 06:54 PM

There is unrealistic fear and worry about the markets and the economic situation not only in the US but especially outside the US, primarily in CHINA, rest of ASIA, and Europe. 

 

Events in CHINA over the weekend has already convinced the regime there to start to change the damaging COVID NET ZERO policy and one should expect more this during the next 6 to 8 weeks. It has been an amazing 48 hours in CHINA with bullish prospects for the markets there and rest of Asia from more and more measures to open up ... in other words, the CHINESE are quietly 

abandoning that COVID NET ZERO crap .... 

 

There will be an increase in COVID rates but the CHINESE have finally realized they must now risk higher COVID rates while opening up the economy or ELSE risk more protests from the people and deteriorating economic conditions. 

 

There will be pullbacks in the US market, in the soaring German & EU markets also, but my FF is BULLS grinding this UP for the rest of 2022 WITH an IT high above ES 4250 in January and then again in February or March 2023. 

 

FED will not pivot this week but they will suggest the end of the 75bps hikes and reduce to 50bps - maybe only 2 more and then wait  to see if this achieves the lower inflation targets. 

 

I think PEAK YIELDS and PEAK DOLLAR have been achieved and both will decline for a few weeks .... 

 

I hold TLT and UVXY CALLS and a few small holdings -- INDA, XLF. 

 

Will build a new LONG position if market drops

 

With an unsettled GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL situation beware! Markets can plunge in this environment so there has to be the appropriate trade & money management. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 06:56 PM

I will buy the HANG SENG & CHINA A50 index Futures if they drop tofay



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:00 PM

Excellent discussion on FED policy, balance sheet:

I also disagree with those who say the FED is reducing the balance sheet by 95 billion per month. 

 

 
#Fed balance sheet keeps shrinking.
Total assets dropped by another $4.2bn in the past week to $8,621.4bn, still equal to 33.6% of US's GDP.
Fed is shrinking its balance sheet by $95bn a month

 

https://twitter.com/...426707963359234

 

 
#Fed balance sheet keeps shrinking. Total assets dropped by another $4.2bn in the past week to $8,621.4bn, still equal to 33.6% of US's GDP. Fed is shrinking its balance sheet by $95bn a month


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:03 PM

I will buy 

 

 
#China stocks face downward pressure amid China unrest over Covid lockdowns. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-rises-haven-demand-stocks-223029585.html

I will buy the HANG SENG & CHINA A50 index Futures if they drop tofay



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:10 PM

 
My latest Chart In Focus article, "Extreme Reading on McClellan Oscillator for Bonds", is posted at https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/extreme_reading_on_mcclellan_oscillator_for_bonds/.


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:11 PM

Good rally last week in TLT 

Closed a few CALLS, now holding 58 

Will add below 100 if traded 

 

 

 
My latest Chart In Focus article, "Extreme Reading on McClellan Oscillator for Bonds", is posted at https://mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/extreme_reading_on_mcclellan_oscillator_for_bonds/.

 



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:13 PM

I am looking for a short sharp reversal to below the zero line but then UP again

 

McClellanOsc_1435.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:19 PM

Too many are expecting the markets to fail at this major resistance point, see chart here:
https://twitter.com/...8265473/photo/1

 

It may but it does not have to, the situation is different now, and I am looking for the markets to vault above it and rally at least 5% 



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:20 PM

 
Have a great weekend! Last week #ES_F broke out a bull flag at 3965. While classical target is 4200+, monster resistances are above: The core downtrend channel @ 4115 Next week: As long as 4010 holds, rally to 4075, 4115, pullback in play. 4010 fails, we see 3965 - gate to sell

 

Too many are expecting the markets to fail at this major resistance point, see chart here:
https://twitter.com/...8265473/photo/1

 

It may but it does not have to, the situation is different now, and I am looking for the markets to vault above it and rally at least 5% 



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 27 November 2022 - 07:37 PM

I do not rely on these alleged extreme levels... this can change suddenly and also are many ST factors that are at play ... 

BUY many do trade on these types of situations:

 

 
Puts keep getting expensive
Betting on more downside just doesn't stop

https://twitter.com/...910186094292994