37 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Not sure many here are short term focussed ..but for those that might be interested.

I mostly am using this currently to manage my IT and Long term positions not short term trading.

 

[EntropyModel]

yep - we got the 3920 test ...signals still not moving to buy ..so high odds we go to test that massive IT pivot of 3880-3900 where it must

bounce or we will drop hard to 3750 min.

[qqqqtrdr]

My medium and short term signals were neutral yesterday so it looks like we are dropping.   Hoping it is enough to get a short term buy.

[EntropyModel]

My ST signal model is still SELL - but showing 'bottoming phase' here ... i'm  seeing a bit more time spend bottoming today then looking for 

a turn back up.  I have some fractal road maps which are helpful - but need signals to confirm 

 - down to 3880-3910 test today ..road maps say higher end of that range.

 - If move back above 3955 - likely get Buy - and target is 4000 area

 - will depend on signals road maps then look for move to 3750

 

But One step at time - currently still in sell, looking for bottoming action.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 December 2022 - 11:42 AM.

[qqqqtrdr]

Even after yesterday I am still in a neutral pattern short and medium term signals.   Some positive signs on put/call ratio yesterday I hope things can improve the next couple days for a buy.

[EntropyModel]

Even after yesterday I am still in a neutral pattern short and medium term signals.   Some positive signs on put/call ratio yesterday I hope things can improve the next couple days for a buy.

 

My IT model has alot of Sell signals here ... I believe the IT top is in but it's not definitive until I see a ST bounce that fails to a lower low.

 

I do see as said setup for bounce with more bottoming ..but that likely needs the dollar to drop ...which it is today. but if the dollar turns up we won't get the bounce.

 

Very short term - next hour ..we're seeing too much BTFD on my imbalance signals so I'm still looking for more probing lower.

*  spikes above pink line lead to selling pressure

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzY1NDU0MV8yMDY0NTgxOA

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 December 2022 - 12:36 PM.

[EntropyModel]

STmodel - still higher odds we drop to test low - 3920 really needs to hold here into the close to maintain the bottom ST setup, a drop through

and risk rises of a 'continuation' toward 3880-3900 .

[EntropyModel]

FWIW 

My system is  'triggered for Buy' but the 'St bottom spotter' signals have NOT fired yet ..wd need a retest 3920 minimum to get that, maybe a little lower.

Maybe it occurs into the close, if not, i'd look for it tomorrow AM.

Without that, I am wary of any attempt to turn up here...not saying it can't but its much lower odds, really very rarely happens infact unless major news overnight etc.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 December 2022 - 03:52 PM.

[jacek]

FWIW 

My system is  'triggered for Buy' but the 'St bottom spotter' signals have NOT fired yet ..wd need a retest 3920 minimum to get that, maybe a little lower.

Maybe it occurs into the close, if not, i'd look for it tomorrow AM.

Without that, I am wary of any attempt to turn up here...not saying it can't but its much lower odds, really very rarely happens infact unless major news overnight etc.

Would a Globex retest be a valid retest in your system?

[EntropyModel]

 

FWIW 

My system is  'triggered for Buy' but the 'St bottom spotter' signals have NOT fired yet ..wd need a retest 3920 minimum to get that, maybe a little lower.

Maybe it occurs into the close, if not, i'd look for it tomorrow AM.

Without that, I am wary of any attempt to turn up here...not saying it can't but its much lower odds, really very rarely happens infact unless major news overnight etc.

Would a Globex retest be a valid retest in your system?

 

 

no - has to be on cash... the rare exception is as said a major bit of news.

It's really a question of risk tolerance on trading here - In other words, for a Short Term trade I personally wd never take it into the close without the best possible setup, this

lacks a few key elements here -  of course, if it gaps up ...may miss it...that's how it goes :-) ...and or really not trying to get the 'absolute turn' just the 'higher probability' part of a move!

 

To me - this is a dangerous setup ST ...if ALGO selling comes in overnight - we could just as easily run down  huge here and negate the Buy setup - so to me, better to see the open.

 

* Example ST bottom spotter signal - there are several, the RED line must reach the bottom blue line for a higher odds 'buy setup' on the other signals i've shown..in other words

these are shorter term signals that must line up with next higher degree signals - they are not 'buy signals' as such.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzY1NTA2NV8yMDY0NjcxMQ

 

* Also - and this is more subjective 'tape read'  but this signal measure BTFD versus STFD ..and looks for extreme imbalance - it's hard to explain but

 - when spike above the pink - we are accumulating extreme BTFD 

 - when spike low (see moving average bands drop low) ..extreme STFD (sell the bounce)

 

Today - we accumulated alot of BTFD ..that's not what I'd want to see..

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzY1NTA3N18yMDY0NjcyNA

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 December 2022 - 04:13 PM.