pdx5, well, there's the inflation that the BLS reports, and I'm betting that heads lower because if you massage numbers for long enough they will eventually grow weak and say whatever you want. Then there's the actual inflation rate reported by folks like shadowstats.com which as you note is probably going to stay elevated. And finally there is the hidden inflation in investment vehicles like stocks, collectibles, etc. which is probably going to head seriously higher if the Fed is on hold. You can just pick your favorite flavor of inflation and get whatever you want.
All the years of funny money printing has finally driven the fire breathing inflation lizard out of its cave, and I suspect that it's going to take a better knight than Powell to slay this beast. At least for now the Fed's tepid actions have cajoled the dragon to slink back into its lair for a nap, but come the summer I suspect the warmth of a burgeoning economy will once again rouse it to burn and pillage the unsuspecting masses.
Sorry for the hokey dragon analogy, but bottom line is I just don't think the present kinder and gentler inflation fighting Fed strategy will work. The big question is how long will it take before this failure is widely recognized. Of course, I could be dead wrong like I was this morning about the CPI, and Powell is a genius and likely future recipient of the Nobel prize for economics.
Regards,
Douglas
