35 replies to this topic

[andr99]

the stock market has two directions, one is up, the other is down. If you look at the last one hundred years, you should get to a conclusion. Most of the time the stock market spent inside that time interval was surging, because bear markets are quick in price variation, but short in time. If you consider that, if you had launched a coin in the air, with a bull printed on one side and the bear on the other one in any randomly chosen moment of the last one hundred years, after touching the ground you would have had a lot more probabilities to see the bullish face of the coin rather than the bearish one. Then, what's the reason why most people, after a plunge, remain bearish from the occurring market bottom till the next market new high ? Because those who move the stock market are champions in creating a wall of worries and in conditioning the pshycology of retailers. But if you consider probabilities, you can easily see that they are cheating everybody.  

[12SPX]

Hmmmm no disagree the market can remain in a sideways mode for years and that is what we are in now, I don't think we'll see new highs for years to come yet, this is not the start of a new bull market, we haven't finished with selling just yet.  Sure there will be rallies but we could stay in this range for a long time to come!!! 

[andr99]

well, if so.....in the meanwhile let's take the bullish ride coming, then let's see what our indicators say. I remark that because last November my favourite indicator was flashing sell signals that I ignored. It won't happen again when we get to the next top. If sideways means 20% up this year and 20% down next year, well that accounts for two opportunities. The difficult part is recognizing the bottom and the top. Difficult, but possible  

Edited by andr99, 17 January 2023 - 01:05 PM.

[blustar]

On the SPX, today looks more like January 12, 2022...

 

The VIX is doing some strange things here if indeed, 1/26/23, is the next low. Today is a 16+6 top and Thursday next week would be a 16+6 low. I have a top on Feb 6, so this scenario may fit.

 

Anyway, tomorrow must go down big for this scenario to fit. If it does, the trade out (then in & out) days would be Friday Jan 20 and Monday Jan 23 & the 4 TD top would be the 24th with "c" of [c] between the 24th & 26th. Maybe I should mellow out the down side to 10+% from today. A move into the 3500's looks likely soon to me.
 

 

 

Brad Gudgeon

Editor,

BluStar Market Insights

[andr99]

blu.....I think there are just two or three things to watch to have a clear idea of the next market move. I've lost the count of your waves and you have planets, cycles and....sorry if I forget something. Don't you think you have too many variables ? Don' t you think the more the variables you have in your system the less reliable the solution you get, will be ? And considering also that some techniques such as waves, not to say planets, are largely unproven so far in traders' world, if I may say, the stock market is difficult, but keeping it simple, helps a lot.

Edited by andr99, 17 January 2023 - 02:10 PM.

[blustar]

blu.....I think there are just two or three things to watch to have a clear idea of the next market move. I've lost the count of your waves and you have planets, cycles and....sorry if I forget something. Don't you think you have too many variables ? Don' t you think the more the variables you have in your system the less reliable the solution you get, will be ? And considering also that some techniques such as waves, not to say planets, are largely unproven so far in traders' world, if I may say, the stock market is difficult, but keeping it simple, helps a lot.

In a simple world that would be true, but alas not so easy anymore

Edited by blustar, 17 January 2023 - 02:29 PM.