36 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

 

 

 

This looks too ALGO driven to be simple 'b' wave - looks more like what I call a 'rinse repeater' pattern ...looks to me very strongly we are moving

into final stages of upside attempts this pattern appears when ALGO's are programmed to force shorts out of market (we already are seeing it - )

so ST bit stronger than I wd expect today, but longer term this for me is more bearish than I expected ....had we instead dropped more, it wd

be more bullish - sounds counter intutive but isn't when u understand the IT context and ALGO programming. 

 

Still - it's OPEX ..where bs lives and breathes ..so need to see monday to get better read.

I think they're just resetting what they did last 3 days.

 

 

Resetting what linrom1?

 

 

 

OpEX selloff to blow up call premiums.

 

 

k yeah, could be.

[EntropyModel]

This looks too ALGO driven to be simple 'b' wave - looks more like what I call a 'rinse repeater' pattern ...looks to me very strongly we are moving

into final stages of upside attempts this pattern appears when ALGO's are programmed to force shorts out of market (we already are seeing it - )

so ST bit stronger than I wd expect today, but longer term this for me is more bearish than I expected ....had we instead dropped more, it wd

be more bullish - sounds counter intutive but isn't when u understand the IT context and ALGO programming. 

 

Still - it's OPEX ..where bs lives and breathes ..so need to see monday to get better read.

Yep Vix not dropping, infact risen over last 1% spx rise ...and rinse repeat it is ....once we get more shorts capitulate..and we are seeing massive surge in that and bullishness, we'll

drop down again ..just at point everyone declares a breakout for nth time.

[EntropyModel]

Not alot to say here i haven't said

- we in a long range started after the IT bounce expected from Oct to xmas

- sentiment os gradually getting euphoric as predicted ..slow process... price can be used,or time ..we getting a combination

- we still as said likely have weeks or maybe month + to go in the process

- Waiting for alot of things to line up that aren't yet

- my short term signals are not working well, and many swing ...which ALWAYS a sign that market is under control of ALGO's and process like this in my experience ..and it often last longer than human patience/tolerance because that's the whole point

- I said ALL ^this already...just summing it up

- So I don't have much to say on Short term/swing right now given my read of the environment - instead I will soon get to by 2023 predictions - I would say I actually nailed 2022 - I called for

- start of bear market but really difficult/unique - check

- move CRB up to targets it hit - check

- bonds to sell off all year well past all expectations as deliberate act of PTB via keeping FED behind the curve - check

For 2023 - Stocks i've already said a bit, i'm LESS sure on commodities and bonds but will give my view soon.

So, less posting from me at moment + I have other life stuff going on taking my time since xmas.

 

 

 

FYI - 

* for those not on my blog, u can listen from 52 minutes on this video for call for PRIMARY bear market to begin, and moves in CRB and bonds.

 

* here is called from my blog

CRB call - Jan 12 for year -  Move up from 230 to 280min - 320max ..here's how chart played out.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzcwNDgxOV8yMDcxNzIzNQ

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzcwNDgyNF8yMDcxNzI0MA

 

Jan 12, 2022 at 10:08pm  by Mark Davidson on Jan 12, 2022 at 10:08pm

COMMODITIES

i'll get to these charts soon ... but It looks to me very high odds we're about to see a huge move up on CRB toward 280(min)-320(max)

So, that will likely call the CB's 'bluff'.

 

I cd be wrong, but the patterns are very clear - much more so on CRB than say oil, but presumably if the CRB move occurs, oil will follow somewhat

Edited by EntropyModel, 24 January 2023 - 02:09 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - The reason I have waited on posting my usual 'next year' forecasts is I really just didn't feel synched to the pattern - probably taking extended time off for xmas and or also the market itself.

BUT - THAT has changed here At least for STOCKS - i'm getting that strong synched feeling of what is going to happen ...on the IT to Big picture for 2023..or at least into say Autumn - now I just need to get same for CRB and bonds ... then I will post my analysis/calls ...

^this is something i've learned about myself over years - I have learned when I am 'hot' and when i am 'cold so to speak ... I was very hot in 2022 and then lost it bit here but coming back ..WHY that is ..hard to say, alot of times its just me ..my own focus, and sometimes like now its when were in sort of a indecision complex zone ... but what i've learned over the years is DO NOTHING in these period s..take a break more ... and so

- I am STILL LONG Investments right now - its hitting new bounce highs since I took it over Oct lows (wife 401K ) ..I said I would post if I went ot cash, which is my intension..not seen yet

what would make me move to cash, I will not short with 401K...aim is simply to miss any big down legs I don't see boucing for long time ...i.e. capitulation type leg sometime in 2023.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzgxNjk5M18yMDg3NTIzNQ

 

- I am still long term short since start of bear ...not adding/not covering ..it long term hold into the final bear lows is my intension

- and as I said, I aim to take a OPTIONS short out for the capitulation leg

- not short term trading too allow me time/focus for reasons I went over for now

Edited by EntropyModel, 24 January 2023 - 06:17 PM.

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks for the update.

So are you saying you are nor really just a ChatBOT?

 

Edited by Rogerdodger, 25 January 2023 - 10:56 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Thanks for the update.

So are you saying you are nor really just a ChatBOT?

 

 

The way to differentiate is look at originality of the work versus just 'facts/data' - AI isn't really AI - its' just 'better pattern recog' using data ...I believe you can

see my work is very original so doesn't fit the 'AI' or 'chat bot' ... but I guess I could be a more advanced quantum AI - give it time, we'll have that  I could design it now.

[Rogerdodger]