370 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Happily in scalp mode until the big decision is made...

 

Then hopefully, we get a nice trending move for a while...

[K Wave]

looking like 5 min line will soon be to 33.4k...so a breach of the 5 that sticks could be the start of a bear victory.

 

but back above 33.8k, bulls could start a breakout attempt.

 

[K Wave]

JNJ not going up on the "beat"...are sales and earnings starting to actually matter?

[12SPX]

Another exciting day of trading in front of us!!  Should be a fun one as the crashers are still hoping for a big move although they may get something after microsoft reports after the bell as its not looking good for them with falling computer sales etc.  The more we get into earnings reports the more headwinds the market may have as they haven't been that great so far and they are slowing.  Nonetheless with the rally yesterday I was able to get my short over that 4000 level to 4001.  We'll see how the day goes should be fun!!!

[dTraderB]

Has been right more than being wrong:

 

With stocks off to a very strong start to the year, we're certainly setting ourselves up for a positive January.

There is still about a week left, but the S&P500 is already up 4.7% so far this month.

Historically, if we finish up, and it looks like the chances of that are high, then it bodes very well for stocks throughout the rest of the year.

I know some people might think inflation changes everything. Others believe the Feds behavior means we should forget all of history.

I get all that.

But the good news is that I don't care about any of those things.

Why would I ignore price trends and fight the tape?

Do I look like a gossip columnist to you?

Is there a quota of click bait headlines that I need to publish so my boss doesn't fire me, and his boss doesn't fire him?

That's not at all how we operate around here.

We're in the business of extracting capital from the market.

And during this bull market, we've tried to do a good job of accomplishing just that.

First it was the Santa Claus Rally - and he showed up this year!

Then it was a positive "First 5 Days of the New Year".

And now the 3rd leg of this Triple Crown is the January Barometer.

"As January goes, so goes the rest of the year", is how I learned it from the Annual Stock Trader's Almanac.

If we close up with a positive January, then it completes the Trifecta.

Since 1950, whenever the S&P500 has completed the Trifecta coming off a down year, the stock market has never been down. And it's up almost 27% on average, more than 3 times the average annual rate of return for the S&P500.

And this makes sense considering we just entered the Pre-Election year, historically the most bullish part of the 4-year cycle:

 

Stocks have been following these seasonal trends as closely as I can remember.

So let's take a look at the 2023 Cycle Composite.

This chart is an equally-weighted composite of every annual trend since 1950, all of the Pre-election years and every 3rd year of each decade for the Decennial Cycle.

This year's composite goes from the lower left to the upper right:

 

Let's recap:

Seasonality is in favor of the bulls.

Historic extremes in bearish sentiment favors the bulls.

We're seeing sector rotation among stocks where the laggards are catching up to the leaders and well, "Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market".

We're seeing an expansion in upside participation among countries around the world (the U.S. is the underperformer during this bull market so far).

And most investors still think stocks are in a bear market and are waiting for a recession.

They're so angry that they're missing the raging bull market happening right in front of them.

I say good.

Stay angry.

Their anger issues are not our problem.

It's our job to extract money from the market. And we fully intend on continuing to do just that.

 

[K Wave]

Watching REIT here today...still thinking decent shot at 2400 area, but below 2340, could mean bulls faltering early...

[K Wave]

Zerohedge with headline yesterday...Best start to January for Naz since 2001 (while leading indicators plummet)

 

What they don't tell you is what happened directly afterwards....a 62% haircut

 

Still willing to consider bullish side should charts shape up that way.

 

But if this market falters badly at any time over next 4-5 days, bears could have a huge victory on their hands.

[K Wave]

all this rally, and Naz Comp not even to the 200 day which is now under the 900 day....

 

not exactly a raging bull....

 

pretty obvious where the potential failure point might be, eh?

 

[K Wave]

Naz in 2001 actually looked stronger than today...that one was THE GREAT FAKEOUT

 

[K Wave]

REIT opens right near 2340....getting interesting...