8 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Don advises and I have already reported that AAII is showing 28.4% Bullish and 36.7% Bears. This is appreciably more Bearish and less Bullish in a decent market. This is ST Bullish and IT Neutral. Last week they were 31.0% Bullish and 33.1% Bearish.

[12SPX]

Interesting, however something way bigger with real money is option buying and that is way to bullish right now, I cannot believe the prices of these calls so I think that neutralizes those figures personally.  Right now no one is buying put protection and that's unhealthy.  Had to edit that my grammar is terrible lol!!! 

Edited by 12SPX, 26 January 2023 - 10:16 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

Looks similar to early November's move down in bullishness. But also late March show a big bearish vote and down we went.

My guess is that FED moves override all... or Russia's war escalation back then?

https://schrts.co/hdMabTTh

 

Today's headlines: WWIII FEARS GROW
BATTLE GETS BLOODIER

Edited by Rogerdodger, 26 January 2023 - 11:24 AM.

[da_cheif]

above 34000 all the nay sayers will get religion.......bet on it.......here we are 6000 pts out of hole in 3 months and closer to the dows ath and its still called a bear market rally......shades of 09....watch the sky

[Douglas]

For the last 6 months or so, every time the AAII Bull - Bear value has gotten back to almost the "0" level it has tagged a short term top.  The sell off after the two most recent examples has been much shallower.  If the DJIA can quickly climb back above the recent top, it definitely will look like the tenor of the market has changed and that maybe the bull is once again in charge.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

[pdx5]

Something smells fishy here. My portfolio keeps hitting all time new highs week after week.
That should not be happening with inflation, rates higher than for a decade and inverted, Ukraine war escalating.

[da_cheif]

For the last 6 months or so, every time the AAII Bull - Bear value has gotten back to almost the "0" level it has tagged a short term top.  The sell off after the two most recent examples has been much shallower.  If the DJIA can quickly climb back above the recent top, it definitely will look like the tenor of the market has changed and that maybe the bull is once again in charge.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

dont forget that there has been a plethora of bull market corrections over the past decades that all ended in October

[OEXCHAOS]

For the last 6 months or so, every time the AAII Bull - Bear value has gotten back to almost the "0" level it has tagged a short term top.  The sell off after the two most recent examples has been much shallower.  If the DJIA can quickly climb back above the recent top, it definitely will look like the tenor of the market has changed and that maybe the bull is once again in charge.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Exactly and this is a good point. I like to look for a change in the tenor of the market. This may be it.

Currently, I'm seeing the market trading in a fashion more consistent with a Bull Market than a Bear Market. Technically, we're in a Bear Market condition still, and will be for at least a couple weeks longer, but trading this like a Bear over the past few weeks would have lost you some coin.

 

M 

[12SPX]

Orrrrrrr could just be a grind market with a top and bottom trading range, although if we stay where we are with this +6% increase the market could be up +72% this year!!