27 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

This is 1st part on stocks - I will do commodities & bonds separately as video would get too long with all analysis/charts.

 

2023 Market Forecast

 

 

[EntropyModel]

FYI - in case that wasn't clear in video -

2023 Forecast stocks including Road Map for IT type moves

consolidation now - In video gave targets/timing/form for that
- then DOWN to retest the lows 3600
- Then a weak IT bounce ..similar to 2022 type
- then DOWN to new bear lows either

1. is DOWN but similar to 2022 .with bigger IT bounces and hold 3300 in 2023 OR

2. is DOWN but massive down leg I went over in video with 3300 the key level as described with 2800 min, 2200 high odds.

[EntropyModel]

If this is still a bear market - as I believe, this signal will be 'trouble' if/when it turns down ..probably over next few weeks.

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzgyOTU2Nl8yMDg5MzIxMg

[EntropyModel]

FYI - sentiment review ..

[EntropyModel]

As per video comments above - this drop is along those lines (big negative for long term upside ) ..it's definitely negative from a wave perspective as now overlapping  . ...but as i said

I can't rule out another long grinder back up after this drop.

 

note CBOE running 0.8's today on a pullback so confirming my point from friday.

 

* near term 4010 is key level - below that and its very negative for upside pattern ultimately(ED likely)

Edited by EntropyModel, 30 January 2023 - 12:54 PM.

[EntropyModel]

This is also bearish leaning development - a break up the imbalance uptrend, which has been consistent sell signal ..MAYBE the FED wednesday cautions this one

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/NzgzNTUxNF8yMDkwMzA0NQ

[EntropyModel]

FYI - just looked over the entire model - alot of signals ... and I come to same conclusion i've already made in video but added some clarity for me on next 1-4 weeks.

 

 - I continue to expect selling to come in a top of range - as we saw today and on any more attempts at 'breakouts' 

 - I expect that selling to be either

Setup1 - shallow say hold 3950 on Spxcash ...then GRind up again as said over next 1-4 weeks to minor new high say 4150 ...4200 absolute max as I went over, and

to get sold hard on weekly in that zone.

Setup 2 - deeper - break of 3980 is big warning, a break of 3950 trigger ..then 3750 is magnet zone.

 

 - In either case I expect more attempt to upside into a TIME zone of about 4-6 weeks from here - THEN if this does as expected, it will be a super bearish setup from there...but one step at time.

 

What I see is happening is basically UNIQUE at least in my experience and really market history

 - we have  a topping Primary Wave up on many world indexes At same time

 - we have initial down move and bounce of Primary wave DOWN on some indexes (comp mainly) spx tech part - whilst DOw etc is still topping.

- We have Commodities in K-spring and bonds after long K-winter ...just to throw more choas into the mix.

 

2022 was the TRANSITION year on ^this - the current bounce is as I went over likely the SYNCHRONIZTION of these big trends ...and the NEXT leg will be DOWN on Everything ...and that

means alot of things have to line up - dollar - bonds- crb - stocks - world indexes .. which is what i'm looking for over this time period.

 

As I mentioned - in real terms this will be the 'real' top  - as world wide Liquidity peaks again (shd be another risk on blowoff as well here say look at Bitcoin) .

[EntropyModel]

YEP - my data continous to pick up an extraordinary shift to bullishness ahead of the FED here - getting pretty frothy 

[EntropyModel]

YEP - my data continous to pick up an extraordinary shift to bullishness ahead of the FED here - getting pretty frothy 

 

What is even more glaring is we first hit CURRENT PRICEs on Comp/SPX ( main indexes) on NOVEMBER 14 2022 !!!!! that is over TWO months ago.

You would not get that impression listening to the bullish drum beat currently.

[EntropyModel]

HEADS UP - if the data i'm seeing is correct, and no reason to believe its not - this Looks more and more like approaching a RETAIL BLOW OFF moment here ..rapid shift to bullishness/covering shorts ahead of the FED here ... I think this will put in the PEAK RETAIL LONG postion ( least shorts, least cash into longs since top in early 2022 REALTIVE to PRICE )  for this bounce before or after the FED ... prices can grind higher still ...but this looks for whatever reason the moment of the 'big flip' as I call it based on data. The Polls may not pick this up - as i've gone over. This supports prices for now  but longer term is a very bearish development as i've gone over - I cd be wrong, just

my view FWIW

Edited by EntropyModel, 31 January 2023 - 03:06 PM.