27 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Certainty looks like that was bottoming action and now breaking out to new all time highs.

 

Way to early to tell that in my view - what i see so far it exactly what I predicted - a blow off and euphoric sentiment ...but I cd be wrong as said.

First thing as I went over is whether it hold 4200 on weekly, but with sentiment going euphoric it is very suspect.

But, as I also said, I will hold long until I see the things I laid out above.

Edited by EntropyModel, 02 February 2023 - 11:58 AM.

[EntropyModel]

It's very convincing isn't it?

 

It would be way more convincing to me if the bull bus wasn't euphoric and getting fully loaded here ...and a 'break out' on FED induced euphoria, right where the pattern as I went over I believe my exact words were

 'price and signals will do whatever it takes to convince retail bear is over'  - is that not what we are seeing right here?

 

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/Nzg1MTUxM18yMDkyNDEwOQ

 

What would convince me I am wrong, the bear is over and new bull ?

I'll break it down short term to longer term

Short term

 - no ALGO selling comes in last hour to hold key weekly pivots eg. 4200 on SPX as I went over

 

medium term

 - when selling finally does come in - wall of worry quickly returns .and 4100 on SPX MUST hold.

 

 

Longer term

 - well alot ...monthly close above 4250 on spx is absolutely key 

 - DOLLAR needs to keep falling, that has been key driver ..and if it does, not produce the 'inversion' I talked about in Dollar rout below 99

- bonds/crb need to sell off 

- LQ needs to keep pumping for CB continued support

..there more but lets address that if short/medium term hurdles are got over.

 

I try to be as clear as possible in my views, right or wrong - hope this helps..though I think I was very clear in last video and comments in this thread.

The reason I said to be long for investors is there was little immediate downside risk as I went over -  that would change if this breakout fails.

Edited by EntropyModel, 02 February 2023 - 02:05 PM.

[EntropyModel]

So far we have

- run the shorts out of town - including STOP run above obvious 4100 top of range

- 100% FLIPPED Retail sentiment in the process including the 'everyone knew was coming' FED slowdown = bullish Nirvana (ignoring the coming recession!)

What I do NOT see yet

- internals failing, though there NEG DIVERGING BADLY here

- clear Price reversal - though this is candidate if drops tomorrow back into gap.

[EntropyModel]

What is the opposite of climbing a 'wall of worry' - we are getting a 'wall of cake eating'   ..where bulls are being given everything they want including that close.

 

One thing i've notice with the bear market in 2022 is it would, to misquote the Eagles 'take it to the limit, one more time' before bounces reversed - we are in that zone.

 

One thing i learned from day trading is also - to always think AGAINST your position - not negatively as such, but know what will 'stop u out' .

This is very clear here - any move back under 4100 and I see a massive retail bull trap -  i'll stay long investments until I see that, but I don't like this setup due

 to the euphoria/news induced FED nature/Cake supplies and other - hopefully I am wrong and can ride this higher.

Edited by EntropyModel, 02 February 2023 - 04:32 PM.

[EntropyModel]

IF we take out 4120 SPXCASH into the close - then the bull trap is likely already set and we gap down and run hard monday.

 

If they ramp it back up into the close - a bit more  'fishing' to be done but I don't see anything here so that other than that and the setup I have laid out.

Edited by EntropyModel, 03 February 2023 - 02:29 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Been looking over the historical record - something is very clear here

- SOMEONE is GOING to get one of the biggest bULL or Bear traps in history

What is happening with price statistically (those who use price only backtests) will be super bullish for 2023 - so we'll see if the MATRIX PUMPS that and Retail go even more 'all in' (pretty close already)

But on the RARER occasions where those odds FAIL - get a massive bull trap and next leg down. 1970's saw couple.

The question - WHAT DETERMINES the 'high odds' on PRICE versus 'low odds' - my answer is THE BOX , LQ , and sentiment ... right now we need to see next week for a better read but without a doubt retail are euphoric on bullish side ( infact, they never actually left it! hence just waiting for excuse here to stop pretending they are bearing, they never were (investors I mean) ) ..... LQ is interesting and I'll tal about that on video analysis if I get to it .... and the BOX - definitely negative - that is trouble with pure statistical analysis ..its saying like lots fake 'science' that infact 'correlation IS confirming' - whereas infact, its the CAUSALITY that matters ...and 'reality' looks very negative 6-12 months out here - so that cannot be ignored.

Price wise we could though simply say

- a move above 4200 that holds weekly is bullish and confirms possible new bull trend ( high low, higher high) - but I would NOT even then ignore 'reality'

- a move back below 4100 is BIG warning...and below 3950 is total disaster and man the exits bull trap of the century! on my price model.

[EntropyModel]

Too sick to post today hopefully tomorrow but my data is showing high odds we are topping out again around these levels for another down swing....the bigger trend will depend on that ....it could drop immediately here or do the 'hokey pokey' like last time ...impossible to say ...but judging from the insane flip to bullish bus ...risk is rising on long side here if your time horizon is swing

[EntropyModel]

Bull train swaying from exceeding maximum load Post Powell - hokey Pokey it is ! I would not be suprised to see a reversal down by the close though.

 

* my data is showing one of biggest retail moves into long positions relative to price in HISTORY ... pretty insane! on tiny breakout.

Even if the bull/bear trend is turning up ( no clear evidence it has yet - just bullish opinion) ..I have never seen the bus leave the upward station with

this many bulls aboard.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 February 2023 - 01:23 PM.