So as of the close on Friday, The Utilities are once again looking like late to the party, near End of Stage 3 in the bull / bear cycle.
Stage 4 is the big plunge.
I put on a 150 and 200 day combo MA here, as some like the 200, and others use the 150 day or 30 week MA.
First we look at 2000-2003 cycle. As you can see Utes started their big Stage 4 decline WELL AFTER the rest of the market, but when the 150/200 combo rolled over, then the worst part of bear began.
Next we look at 2007-2009 experience...once again we see that Utes were late to the party, and again, once the 150/200 combo rolled over, No Bueno for bulls.
And now, we look at today, with the Utes yet again late to the party, and 150/200 perhaps on the verge of another rollover.
And I do believe the decision to complete that rollover or not, could come as soon as next Monday...hence my seeming obsession with them over the last few weeks. I mean, why pay any attention to the Utes? Well...the above tells you why.
So...IF...we get hard down on the Utes next week, could be a very bad harbinger for bulls. But should they rocket launch up, then the "soft landing" might actually happen.
Place your bets!
Edited by K Wave, 28 January 2023 - 12:26 PM.