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Dow Utility Average...no great bears without them on board


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#1 K Wave

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Posted 28 January 2023 - 12:17 PM

So as of the close on Friday, The Utilities are once again looking like late to the party, near End of Stage 3 in the bull / bear cycle.

Stage 4 is the big plunge.

 

I put on a 150 and 200 day combo MA here, as some like the 200, and others use the 150 day or 30 week MA.

 

First we look at 2000-2003 cycle. As you can see Utes started their big Stage 4 decline WELL AFTER the rest of the market, but when the 150/200 combo rolled over, then the worst part of bear began.

 

 

Next we look at 2007-2009 experience...once again we see that Utes were late to the party, and again, once the 150/200 combo rolled over, No Bueno for bulls.

 

 

 

And now, we look at today, with the Utes yet again late to the party, and 150/200 perhaps on the verge of another rollover.

And I do believe the decision to complete that rollover or not, could come as soon as next Monday...hence my seeming obsession with them over the last few weeks. I mean, why pay any attention to the Utes? Well...the above tells you why.

 

So...IF...we get hard down on the Utes next week, could be a very bad harbinger for bulls. But should they rocket launch up, then the "soft landing" might actually happen.

 

Place your bets!

 


Edited by K Wave, 28 January 2023 - 12:26 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#2 K Wave

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Posted 28 January 2023 - 12:40 PM

And here is REIT index, where HARD DOWN is needed VERY soon to keep its a bit more established bear trend intact.

 

Bears MUST get it back under KEY 2340 level before that 150 actually turns up.

By end of next week, will probably have a lot more clarity here....

 

Utes setup still has me perhaps leaning a bit more bearish than bullish, but if bears do not ACT in a big way real soon, then bulls could conceivably overrun them and prevent further damage.

 

With Fed and META AMZN AAPL GOOGL next week, market should be well on its way to the big decision.

 

 

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#3 MDurkin

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Posted 28 January 2023 - 07:46 PM

So as of the close on Friday, The Utilities are once again looking like late to the party, near End of Stage 3 in the bull / bear cycle.

Stage 4 is the big plunge.

 

I put on a 150 and 200 day combo MA here, as some like the 200, and others use the 150 day or 30 week MA.

 

First we look at 2000-2003 cycle. As you can see Utes started their big Stage 4 decline WELL AFTER the rest of the market, but when the 150/200 combo rolled over, then the worst part of bear began.

 

 

Next we look at 2007-2009 experience...once again we see that Utes were late to the party, and again, once the 150/200 combo rolled over, No Bueno for bulls.

 

 

 

And now, we look at today, with the Utes yet again late to the party, and 150/200 perhaps on the verge of another rollover.

And I do believe the decision to complete that rollover or not, could come as soon as next Monday...hence my seeming obsession with them over the last few weeks. I mean, why pay any attention to the Utes? Well...the above tells you why.

 

So...IF...we get hard down on the Utes next week, could be a very bad harbinger for bulls. But should they rocket launch up, then the "soft landing" might actually happen.

 

Place your bets!

 

My number one indicator. I use the 10/20 moving average on monthly basis. The 10 now has formed a M, it has not crossed the 20 yet. When/if it does... game over. You are correct in 2000/2003 -2007/2009 it was the last to the party...last soldier standing. Patience.


Edited by MDurkin, 28 January 2023 - 07:46 PM.


#4 skott

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Posted 30 January 2023 - 03:54 PM

any news out today causing this downdraft?  maybe too many looking to the sky?