40 replies to this topic

[skott]

I like Kwave's info on the 200/900 moving averages. On the QQQ just a few cents lower on the 200 will drop it below the 900 but then we still need to get QQQ below those two, presently, conjoined averages around 290. That's a key marker. I'm probably way off on this but I wonder if the QQQ's could drop 13pts or more tomorrow?  Just my guess and I'm super short Six ETF's and MSI plus long PSQ, so I am biased.  I sold me TLT last week or before at 105 something for a small profit. don't forget the gold stocks are sending bearish signals. I just pray Biden is not about to start WWW. Why would he you say?  He wants a diversion, he's severely stupid, he's working for Satan who wants everyone dead and he's facing impeachment and jailtime..... so he will do anything at this point. I guess he could invoke some war time powers act and exempt himself from investigation and prosecution.  Pray.

[skott]

A Fed Pivot Is Not Happening In 2023 Traders are starting to bet on 6% rates by September and "the bond market is telling you that inflation isn’t transitory."

Quoth the Raven

Feb 15

30

6

 

Friend of Fringe Finance and well known financial news contributor - as well as 38 year veteran of markets - Kenny Polcari has been kind enough to share his most recent thoughts on the market with our readers.

For those who aren’t familiar with Kenny or don’t recognize him from TV, he is Managing Partner of Kace Capital Advisors and Chief Market Strategist at SlateStone Wealth. He started his career on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as an institutional broker back in the early eighties when the march of electronic trading was already taking its first steps, and the great bull was first learning to run.

Here’s his take on markets heading into the Wednesday, February 15, 2023, trading day:

The post has been lightly edited for punctuation and grammar.

The Consumer Price Index is both hot and cool, which makes it interesting. The YOY read was hotter than the expectation (6.4% vs. 6.2%) but cooler than last month (6.5%), while the MOM number was on target, which was hotter than last month (0.5%).

[K Wave]

I like Kwave's info on the 200/900 moving averages. On the QQQ just a few cents lower on the 200 will drop it below the 900 but then we still need to get QQQ below those two, presently, conjoined averages around 290. That's a key marker. I'm probably way off on this but I wonder if the QQQ's could drop 13pts or more tomorrow?  Just my guess and I'm super short Six ETF's and MSI plus long PSQ, so I am biased.  I sold me TLT last week or before at 105 something for a small profit. don't forget the gold stocks are sending bearish signals. I just pray Biden is not about to start WWW. Why would he you say?  He wants a diversion, he's severely stupid, he's working for Satan who wants everyone dead and he's facing impeachment and jailtime..... so he will do anything at this point. I guess he could invoke some war time powers act and exempt himself from investigation and prosecution.  Pray.

Turns tend to start slow, and then all at once.

 

Today's action sure looked like bears made the bulls "tap out" after that epic intraday battle. So now would be bears best shot to really start tearing thing up, perhaps after a small morning bounce.

 

Up at the open, and then failure is the bearish type action to start looking for now.

Edited by K Wave, 16 February 2023 - 06:27 PM.

[K Wave]

Note: If Dow takes out 33500 overnight, then up action in the morning likely off the table. and breakaway gap instead.

[Chilidawgz]

A Fed Pivot Is Not Happening In 2023 Traders are starting to bet on 6% rates by September and "the bond market is telling you that inflation isn’t transitory."

 

[K Wave]

Yup...HYG looks like typical bear rally that has run outta steam...

 

Covid lows and beyond???

 

[pdx5]

A 1/4 point hike by FED in next meeting will be Viagra for the bulls in March. 1/2 point hike will charge up the bears.

Bonds are  in sync with interest rates. Actually Fed funds rate going from near zero to 4.25% should have crashed the bond market.

But no such thing.

[skott]

The 30 yr has dropped from 182 to 125. Pretty big drop Imo. 37% drop? Ptretty big

[skott]

 

I like Kwave's info on the 200/900 moving averages. On the QQQ just a few cents lower on the 200 will drop it below the 900 but then we still need to get QQQ below those two, presently, conjoined averages around 290. That's a key marker. I'm probably way off on this but I wonder if the QQQ's could drop 13pts or more tomorrow?  Just my guess and I'm super short Six ETF's and MSI plus long PSQ, so I am biased.  I sold me TLT last week or before at 105 something for a small profit. don't forget the gold stocks are sending bearish signals. I just pray Biden is not about to start WWW. Why would he you say?  He wants a diversion, he's severely stupid, he's working for Satan who wants everyone dead and he's facing impeachment and jailtime..... so he will do anything at this point. I guess he could invoke some war time powers act and exempt himself from investigation and prosecution.  Pray.

Turns tend to start slow, and then all at once.

 

Today's action sure looked like bears made the bulls "tap out" after that epic intraday battle. So now would be bears best shot to really start tearing thing up, perhaps after a small morning bounce.

 

Up at the open, and then failure is the bearish type action to start looking for now.

 

 

I agree on what bearish mornings look like. Unless tomorrow does a very bug reverse up mive this will be three large weekly topping tails

[pdx5]

The 30 yr has dropped from 182 to 125. Pretty big drop Imo. 37% drop? Ptretty big

 

Interest rates (federal funds rate) has gone from 1/4 % to 4.5%, jump of more than 1700%

 

Jan 31 to Feb 1 +25 4.50% to 4.75% Dec 14, 2022 +50 4.25% to 4.50% Nov 2, 2022 +75 3.75% to 4.00% Sept 21, 2022 +75 3.00% to 3.25% July 27, 2022 +75 2.25% to 2.50% June 16, 2022 +75 1.5% to 1.75% May 5, 2022 +50 0.75% to 1.00% March 17, 2022 +25 0.25% to 0.50%