40 replies to this topic

[skott]

 

The 30 yr has dropped from 182 to 125. Pretty big drop Imo. 37% drop? Ptretty big

 

Interest rates (federal funds rate) has gone from 1/4 % to 4.5%, jump of more than 1700%

 

Jan 31 to Feb 1 +25 4.50% to 4.75% Dec 14, 2022 +50 4.25% to 4.50% Nov 2, 2022 +75 3.75% to 4.00% Sept 21, 2022 +75 3.00% to 3.25% July 27, 2022 +75 2.25% to 2.50% June 16, 2022 +75 1.5% to 1.75% May 5, 2022 +50 0.75% to 1.00% March 17, 2022 +25 0.25% to 0.50%

 

 

your math is off in the sense that we are dealing with two different values. Think about if rates go from 1/4 to 1/2% that means they've doubled. Would you expect bonds to be cut in half? of course not.  I mean you realize Bonds nor anything else can't drop 1700% the max value anything can drop is 100% and that would be if it went to zero

[K Wave]

Note: If Dow takes out 33500 overnight, then up action in the morning likely off the table. and breakaway gap instead.

Looking more like this option at this point...see what it looks like after 8:30 EST

[pdx5]

How is it smart to buy 10 year treasuries paying 3.75% taxable interest when after tax money to buy bonds is losing value at 6.5%?

Bonds should be paying much more.

Edited by pdx5, 17 February 2023 - 10:33 AM.

[skott]

new all-time one-day records for total call volume and amateur Stock equity volume as a percentage of total equity volume which were both recorded on February 2, 2023.

[skott]

Has anyone even noticed or mentioned on the financial news that the US Dollar has been in a two year bull market? Dollar up, risk off, dollar down risk on, market rallies. Look at the recent correction in the dollar, that when equities had their rally.

 

VVIX making higher lows.

 

The equity Call volume thru the roof record volume. haha

 

Amatuer making up abnormal amount of the market volume and they are in record debt. Sure, this will all end very well.

Edited by skott, 17 February 2023 - 06:43 PM.

[skott]

Everyone thought the rates hikes would pause in March. That is not the case now. The odds have gone way up for continued hiking. They are telling us they are going to do it. So what will happen? They always go too far, that is how the ppl they serve make the most money.

 

https://www.cmegroup...watch-tool.html

 

You can click on each month at the top to see the odds of rates going higher.

Edited by skott, 17 February 2023 - 12:35 PM.

[skott]

And a big drop, the most preferable kind for me is a 1.5% to  2% daily drip, drip for a week or two, rebound to a lower high and do it again. I'm not making the crazy prediction some do of 20% in a day. That's extremely unlikely and if it did occur that would likely be followed by a very large rebound. I'm thinking 40% drop in QQQ from the recent top of 314. 

[skott]

297.80 is the next key support for QQQ. If that doesn't hold we go to 290 for the ultimate bull vs Bear resolution. Everything lines up there including 38% retrace of rally off the Oct/Dec/Jan lows

[pdx5]

If you are convinced of a huge drop ahead, are you buying shorts in a huge amount?

[skott]

I was/am short a huge amount since dec 13th. You must not be reading my posts.  Im short too much already.

 

https://fortune.com/...erve-kolanovic/

 

Rather than invest in a diversified portfolio using responsible levels of margin, Kolanovic said, these amateur investors are going out of their way to pick a fight with a Federal Reserve intent on cooling off the economy.

 

“The prevailing sentiment is of exuberance and greed,” Kolanovic warned of retail investors’ trading patterns on Wednesday.

 

This herd mentality and penchant among amateur investors for placing high-risk bets in volatile stocks and options means that everyone could end up rushing for the exit all at once when a broader correction invariably ensues, he said. This could set the market up for a repeat of 2018’s “Volmageddon” crash, in which a vicious cycle of selling begat more selling.

“While history doesn’t repeat, it often rhymes,” Kolanovic warned.

Edited by skott, 17 February 2023 - 06:32 PM.