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Fed fund rate 7-8 percent by the end of the year- crazy?


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#11 pdx5

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Posted 17 February 2023 - 10:21 AM

Retail is running on all cylinders. Un-Employment is at record low. I am not seeing any slowdown in spending or jobs. Credit card use is at record levels.

As for driving by looking in rear view mirror, every chart is data from rear view mirror. Yes, trends can continue but any trend is still looking in rear view mirror.

Looking ahead, Govt spending will continue higher. National debt limit will be jacked up. Inflation is spooking people to buy now pay later in cheaper dollars. 70% of outfits are reporting higher profits. Road ahead looks more euphoria than gloom for stocks. But I have my yearly eye exam coming up soon.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#12 skott

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Posted 17 February 2023 - 11:33 AM

yes what is happening with Credit card debt now and the housing market is just like 2008. sub prime auto, etc it's all there. As far as what the Fed does. Do you really think they care if they cause a depression or crash? that may be exactly what they want.



#13 K Wave

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Posted 17 February 2023 - 12:13 PM

yes what is happening with Credit card debt now and the housing market is just like 2008. sub prime auto, etc it's all there. As far as what the Fed does. Do you really think they care if they cause a depression or crash? that may be exactly what they want.

after watching the total freeze up when mortgage rates hit 7, can't even imagine if they jack it to 8.

 

But until charts actually start to flash solid bear signals, bad news/data means nothing.

 

1982 came out of the worst news flow imaginable, and it continued for some time after the launch.

 

So how this giant wedgie resolves should give some clues...if it IS up, fight it at your peril.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#14 pdx5

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Posted 17 February 2023 - 02:48 PM

yes what is happening with Credit card debt now and the housing market is just like 2008. sub prime auto, etc it's all there. As far as what the Fed does. Do you really think they care if they cause a depression or crash? that may be exactly what they want.


No crash is coming during next 30 days. 3750 has strong support. Even after down Thursday & today, my portfolio is holding up.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#15 K Wave

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Posted 17 February 2023 - 04:46 PM

And yet another "scary inflation" report. SMH

https://www.zerohedg...e-35-crazy-peak

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#16 MDurkin

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Posted 17 February 2023 - 05:52 PM

https://www.thebalan...hs-lows-3306135

 

The GDP was 4.1% in 2000, unemployment was 3.9%, and inflation was 3.4%.

DATE FED FUNDS RATE EVENT Feb. 2 5.75% No notable event March 21 6.0% No notable event May 16 6.5% Raised rates despite stock market drop

 

In 2006, the GDP was 2.8%, unemployment was 4.4%, and inflation was 3.2%. 

DATE FED FUNDS RATE EVENT Jan. 31 4.5% Raised to cool housing market bubble March 28 4.75% Higher rates caused more mortgage defaults May 10 5.0% No notable event June 29 5.25% No notable event
 

In 2007, GDP was 2.0%, unemployment was 5.0%, and inflation was 2.8%.

DATE FED FUNDS RATE EVENT Sept. 18 4.75% Home sales fell Oct. 31 4.5% No notable event Dec. 11 4.25% LIBOR rose; stock market peaked; recession began
 
Note: the 2 year went to 6.81 in 2000 and 4.98 in 2007.

Edited by MDurkin, 17 February 2023 - 05:58 PM.


#17 pdx5

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Posted 17 February 2023 - 09:53 PM

And yet another "scary inflation" report. SMH

https://www.zerohedg...e-35-crazy-peak

One more for you....

 Bill Smead: U.S. inflation is 'far stickier' and could last a decade (cnbc.com)


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#18 K Wave

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Posted 19 February 2023 - 07:02 PM

More on that crazy old inflation....

 

but we are probabaly pretty close here after an 80% shellackin'

 

Starting to buy again tonight, as I think this may be final washout...

 

Will buy more once I see better sign of turn.

 


Edited by K Wave, 19 February 2023 - 07:02 PM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#19 pdx5

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Posted 20 February 2023 - 12:13 PM

More on that crazy old inflation....

 

but we are probabaly pretty close here after an 80% shellackin'

 

Starting to buy again tonight, as I think this may be final washout...

 

Will buy more once I see better sign of turn.

 

My opinion is energy prices are more of a supply and demand situation, rather than inflation driven. Energy prices is the horse and inflation is the buggy which follows behind the horse. Natual gas is not in widespread use for transporation industry. My opinion is diesel and petro prices affect inflation much more than natural gas. I have not researched the exact number, but my educated guess is only a small percentage of power plants in US use natural gas. Most users are douseholds using gas for cooking and heating. In other words the demand is stable and therefor supply/demand affects the price more than inflation.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule