Fed fund rate 7-8 percent by the end of the year- crazy?
#11
Posted 17 February 2023 - 10:21 AM
As for driving by looking in rear view mirror, every chart is data from rear view mirror. Yes, trends can continue but any trend is still looking in rear view mirror.
Looking ahead, Govt spending will continue higher. National debt limit will be jacked up. Inflation is spooking people to buy now pay later in cheaper dollars. 70% of outfits are reporting higher profits. Road ahead looks more euphoria than gloom for stocks. But I have my yearly eye exam coming up soon.
#12
Posted 17 February 2023 - 11:33 AM
yes what is happening with Credit card debt now and the housing market is just like 2008. sub prime auto, etc it's all there. As far as what the Fed does. Do you really think they care if they cause a depression or crash? that may be exactly what they want.
#13
Posted 17 February 2023 - 12:13 PM
yes what is happening with Credit card debt now and the housing market is just like 2008. sub prime auto, etc it's all there. As far as what the Fed does. Do you really think they care if they cause a depression or crash? that may be exactly what they want.
after watching the total freeze up when mortgage rates hit 7, can't even imagine if they jack it to 8.
But until charts actually start to flash solid bear signals, bad news/data means nothing.
1982 came out of the worst news flow imaginable, and it continued for some time after the launch.
So how this giant wedgie resolves should give some clues...if it IS up, fight it at your peril.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#14
Posted 17 February 2023 - 02:48 PM
yes what is happening with Credit card debt now and the housing market is just like 2008. sub prime auto, etc it's all there. As far as what the Fed does. Do you really think they care if they cause a depression or crash? that may be exactly what they want.
No crash is coming during next 30 days. 3750 has strong support. Even after down Thursday & today, my portfolio is holding up.
#15
Posted 17 February 2023 - 04:46 PM
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#16
Posted 17 February 2023 - 05:52 PM
https://www.thebalan...hs-lows-3306135
The GDP was 4.1% in 2000, unemployment was 3.9%, and inflation was 3.4%.
In 2006, the GDP was 2.8%, unemployment was 4.4%, and inflation was 3.2%.
In 2007, GDP was 2.0%, unemployment was 5.0%, and inflation was 2.8%.
Edited by MDurkin, 17 February 2023 - 05:58 PM.
#17
Posted 17 February 2023 - 09:53 PM
And yet another "scary inflation" report. SMH
https://www.zerohedg...e-35-crazy-peak
One more for you....
Bill Smead: U.S. inflation is 'far stickier' and could last a decade (cnbc.com)
#18
Posted 19 February 2023 - 07:02 PM
More on that crazy old inflation....
but we are probabaly pretty close here after an 80% shellackin'
Starting to buy again tonight, as I think this may be final washout...
Will buy more once I see better sign of turn.
Edited by K Wave, 19 February 2023 - 07:02 PM.
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#19
Posted 20 February 2023 - 12:13 PM
More on that crazy old inflation....
but we are probabaly pretty close here after an 80% shellackin'
Starting to buy again tonight, as I think this may be final washout...
Will buy more once I see better sign of turn.
My opinion is energy prices are more of a supply and demand situation, rather than inflation driven. Energy prices is the horse and inflation is the buggy which follows behind the horse. Natual gas is not in widespread use for transporation industry. My opinion is diesel and petro prices affect inflation much more than natural gas. I have not researched the exact number, but my educated guess is only a small percentage of power plants in US use natural gas. Most users are douseholds using gas for cooking and heating. In other words the demand is stable and therefor supply/demand affects the price more than inflation.