13 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Will markets turn to "Ashes" on Ash Wednesday?

KITCO

Heads up: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC), due out at 2:00 p.m. EST. Past FOMC minutes releases have moved markets.

"The stock index bulls have faded recently, including near-term price uptrends on the daily bar chart being negated to suggest near-term market tops are in place.

Technically, the gold futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a fledgling downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at last week's high of $1,881.60. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,856.40 and then at $1,870.90. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,839.00 and then at the February low of $1,827.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 February 2023 - 10:03 AM.

[redfoliage2]

Yesterday it was selling the rumor...............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 22 February 2023 - 10:18 AM.

[pdx5]

Holding off transactions until 2 PM Eastern time.

[Rogerdodger]

I bet a nickle that we bounce from support near here for a day or so, then retest today's low...and it fails.

[pdx5]

I bet a nickle that we bounce from support near here for a day or so, then retest today's low...and it fails.

A day or so bounce would be good enough to bail with parachute strapped on.

At least I am above water on all longs. MM's are paying 4%+ to park the cash. I will be content with that.

Edited by pdx5, 22 February 2023 - 10:57 AM.

[skott]

I bet a nickle that we bounce from support near here for a day or so, then retest today's low...and it fails.

 

Yeah, I'd think, but never certain of course in bear markets, that it could bounce a little. Would be a bad thing for the downtrend. that's why I stay short until it's over.... most of the time unless I chicken out

[EntropyModel]

FED are generating alot of 'slope of hope' from what I see in data each time they 'yap' .

[skott]

yes, there is tons of hope out there. All the signs of denying reality are there. Signs in the housing market or coming upheaval, sub prime auto delinquinces are bad. too many traders on the long side. Retail still thinks you just buy the dip and it always works out. To that I say go look at Big tech names, Naz 100  top in march 2000. It took 16 years to nominally surpass the peak. who knows how long it took when adjusted for inflation.

[skott]

 

I bet a nickle that we bounce from support near here for a day or so, then retest today's low...and it fails.

 

Yeah, I'd think, but never certain of course in bear markets, that it could bounce a little. Would be a bad thing for the downtrend. that's why I stay short until it's over.... most of the time unless I chicken out

 

 

 

I would prefer to see some follow thru cleanly to the downside so that it would look like a 3rd wave down.  I'll say again. One of the key characteristics of a bear markets are the sharp short rallies. Bear markets are notorious for 20% plus rallies. We just had a 23% one. Heavy insider selling to buying ratio, call volume, series of lower highs, on and on.

[Rogerdodger]

The minutes show that some members favored a 50 basis point move.
"A few participants stated that they favored raising the target range for the federal funds rate 50 basis points at this meeting or that they could have supported raising the target by that amount. The participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way," the minutes said.
Not only did some central bank committee members support more aggressive action, but the entire committee agreed that more rate hikes would be needed to bring inflation down. The minutes also showed that the Federal Reserve wants to maintain its aggressive policy stance for longer than initially expected.
"With inflation still well above the Committee's longer-run goal, participants generally noted that upside risks to the inflation outlook remained a key factor shaping the policy outlook, and that maintaining a restrictive policy stance until inflation is clearly on a path toward 2 percent is appropriate from a risk management perspective," the minutes said

 

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Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 February 2023 - 03:03 PM.