25 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

"I don't see a Swing low YET - I don't even see a short term low today...but I do expect a bounce in the 3950-3960 area as said - THEN that will be big tell.

I can also tell that retail is just about 100% long, zero short and not budging! not just from data but also response to this call I made for blow off  runup then this drop - not popular to say the least :-)"

 

https://www.traders-...-down/?p=886716

 

market  charts analysis of current swing down

https://markdavidson...dium=email#play

[Rogerdodger]

retail is just about 100% long

 

"Retail" traders or typical mom and pop IRA holders who are told, "It will come back"?

 

Washington, DC, December 15, 2022 - Total US retirement assets were $32.3 trillion as of September 30, 2022., down 4.5 percent from June 30, 2022. Retirement assets accounted for 30 percent of all household financial assets in the United States at the end of September 2022.

401(k) plans hold $6.3 trillion in assets as of September 30, 2022, in more than 625,000 plans, on behalf of about 60 million active participants and millions of former employees and retirees.

Retirement account balances in 401(k) plans lost nearly one-quarter of their value in 2022, according to Fidelity's analysis. Amid ongoing high inflation and economic uncertainty, nearly half of retirees expect to outlive their savings.

 

Mom and Pop may be 100% long but getting nervous...

 

Retirees lost 23% of their 401(k) savings in 2022, Fidelity says

Edited by Rogerdodger, 24 February 2023 - 01:06 PM.

[pdx5]

All I know is do not fight the FED. I have learned that over 60 years of trading stocks.

[EntropyModel]

yeah that was actually a very difficult call for swing down from 4200 area, whole world was bullish when i made it  on 'the breakout' - everything is obvious in hindsight not in foresight.

[Chilidawgz]

All I know is do not fight the FED. I have learned that over 60 years of trading stocks.

and rates are still rising

 

Marty Zweig: Don't fight the FED

 

The phrase was coined in 1970 by Martin Zweig, a finance professor and famed investor, to explain the strong correlation between Federal Reserve policy and the direction of the stock market.

[EntropyModel]

This move down from 4200 to 3950 is not due to 'inflation' ..its due to reason I gave Feb 7 when I called it .. its TA ..I explained it was due to extreme bullish sentiment on 'breakout' and failing internals etc

not to blow my horn but I also called the FED upward blowoff here as well - well  the model....and there were VERY few takers of this call at the time or since.

 

https://www.traders-...-bearish-to-me/

 

 

Been sick so not time ot post charts but in brief ( and I made comments in thread below)

 - we blew out top of SPX range 4100 - by 2% upto the 4200 weekly bear resistance post FED  and FAILED there 

 - NYMO gave a sell signal here and summations are rolling over

 - Sentiment has seen on my real$ data one of biggest shifts from 'bearish to bullish' positions relative to price change in HISTORY ..read that a few times!

 - price has failed to hold the breakout pivot 4100

 

I beleive the current SWING up has topped or topping -  the IT trend is harder to say ..this may just be a drop to clear the overflowing bull bus ..but so MUST hold pivots

 - 4080 ..4040 ..then 3950 is huge.

 

Note - this is what I predicted would occur before the FED last week -

"Posted 31 January 2023 - 02:03 PM

HEADS UP - if the data i'm seeing is correct, and no reason to believe its not - this Looks more and more like approaching a RETAIL BLOW OFF moment here ..rapid shift to bullishness/covering shorts ahead of the FED here ... I think this will put in the PEAK RETAIL LONG postion ( least shorts, least cash into longs since top in early 2022 REALTIVE to PRICE )  for this bounce before or after the FED ... prices can grind higher still ...but this looks for whatever reason the moment of the 'big flip' as I call it based on data. The Polls may not pick this up - as i've gone over. This supports prices for now  but longer term is a very bearish development as i've gone over - I cd be wrong, just my view FWIW

"

 

https://www.traders-...for-2023/page-3

Edited by EntropyModel, 24 February 2023 - 01:28 PM.

[redfoliage2]

USD looks at a top, and so stock bulls still get a chance ...................

[pdx5]

 

All I know is do not fight the FED. I have learned that over 60 years of trading stocks.

and rates are still rising

 

Marty Zweig: Don't fight the FED

 

The phrase was coined in 1970 by Martin Zweig, a finance professor and famed investor, to explain the strong correlation between Federal Reserve policy and the direction of the stock market.

 

Zweig was one of the origina great strategist. 

[pdx5]

USD looks at a top, and so stock bulls still get a chance ...................

 

Me thinks US$ is a follower of federal funds rates, not a leading indicator. Everything depends on how soon the inflation index FED watches changes direction. Fact is no one knows when exactly that will happen. 

 

Also helping the US$ is stubborn Japan ECB keeping rates artificially low. They are forced into that situation because of the huge national debt in Japan. If Japan were to raise rates where they should be, dollar will fall significantly. I am surprized our FED has raised rates as much as they have. Our national debt is record high, and servicing that debt will soon exceed defense budget.

Edited by pdx5, 24 February 2023 - 02:21 PM.

[redfoliage2]

 

USD looks at a top, and so stock bulls still get a chance ...................

 

Me thinks US$ is a follower of federal funds rates, not a leading indicator. Everything depends on how soon the inflation index FED watches changes direction. Fact is no one knows when that will happen. 

 

Also helping the US$ is stubborn Japan ECB keeping rates low.

 

But USD more sensitive to the economic data ...............