25 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

 

 

USD looks at a top, and so stock bulls still get a chance ...................

 

Me thinks US$ is a follower of federal funds rates, not a leading indicator. Everything depends on how soon the inflation index FED watches changes direction. Fact is no one knows when that will happen. 

 

Also helping the US$ is stubborn Japan ECB keeping rates low.

 

But USD more sensitive to the economic data ...............

 

Ecomic data also follows Federal funds rate. If rates were raised to say 7.5-8%, where they will need to be to kill inflation quickly,

economic data will head lower, but dollar will still remain strong by attracting foreign bond buyers for the high paying treasuries..

[EntropyModel]

This is  FF  -  for  Swing and IT calls news is irrelevant, economics is irrelevant , but  TA( summations, sentiment and yes even waves) works ..at least the TA I use   ..

The economic stuff is very important but only for longer term.

 

I  mentioned now we hit 3950 it gets more difficult - and I am out rest of today but I will look at my TA later for the few here who actually are interested in swing/IT and TA LOL

Edited by EntropyModel, 24 February 2023 - 02:54 PM.

[pdx5]

This is  FF  -  for  Swing and IT calls news is irrelevant, economics is irrelevant , but  TA( summations, sentiment and yes even waves) works ..at least the TA I use   ..
The economic stuff is very important but only for longer term.
 
I  mentioned now we hit 3950 it gets more difficult - and I am out rest of today but I will look at my TA later for the few here who actually are interested in swing/IT and TA LOL

Correct!! Short term swing trading and long term 12+ months "investing" are not the same. No stock chart goes up or down in a straight line.

Also, in my opinion short term trading become harder with larger dollar magnitudes. Can anyone imagine Buffet making short term trades?

Edited by pdx5, 24 February 2023 - 03:04 PM.

[K Wave]

 

 

Me thinks US$ is a follower of federal funds rates, not a leading indicator. Everything depends on how soon the inflation index FED watches changes direction. Fact is no one knows when exactly that will happen. 

 

Also helping the US$ is stubborn Japan ECB keeping rates artificially low. They are forced into that situation because of the huge national debt in Japan. If Japan were to raise rates where they should be, dollar will fall significantly. I am surprized our FED has raised rates as much as they have. Our national debt is record high, and servicing that debt will soon exceed defense budget.

 

Mr. Market will force their hand soon enough in the big scheme of things...still think  good chance 2021-2022 was turn and base period, and 2023 onwards is where the S starts to hit the fan....

 

All epic ponzi schemes fail eventually, and Japan's is way beyond epic....

[skott]

yeah, and the fact that chairman Powell after the last meeting said we have many decades of great times ahead probably means exactly the opposite.

 

No escape for anyone.

[steadyquest]

What happens to the fat and happy-go-lucky bull when he discovers (too late) that the hibernating bear is only catnapping?

 

[pdx5]

Bulls can hibernate as well during bear era 😂

[EntropyModel]

This is  FF  -  for  Swing and IT calls news is irrelevant, economics is irrelevant , but  TA( summations, sentiment and yes even waves) works ..at least the TA I use   ..

The economic stuff is very important but only for longer term.

 

I  mentioned now we hit 3950 it gets more difficult - and I am out rest of today but I will look at my TA later for the few here who actually are interested in swing/IT and TA LOL

 

I probably won't get to video/charts today as did long one on bonds/crb/economy so here's my quick take ..then hope to get to TA tomorrow.

 

TOUGH CALL here for mon-tue now we tagged 3950 ..i've been looking over all the models to get a read ...

- the 'low risk' part of Swing drop is DONE

- we're now in the WINDOW for SWING UP ...BUT

- the Models are seeing VERY high odds We need a bit more TIME/bottoming -

- IDEALLY - We need to 'tag' 3900 area ...get some positive divergences and signals missing on ST model ..then turn up ..that is my 'ideal road map'

^THAT is the short term - beyond that ..this looks as said increasingly bearish on the IT and I believe the bear market is close to re-asserting a bit earlier than I expected, I still think we can get one more swing up from ^this 3900 area ...but , its not as certain ..and I definitely see less chance of getting back to bounce highs @ 4200 as I mentioned mid last week.

 

btm line - tomorrow into tue is likely bottoming action for the swing, i'd like to see a tag of 3900 and +div on ST model - then I see a SWINg UP .....trading wise I don't see a good trade/call from here -  if

we get the setup I want at 3900 mon/tue i'll say, and look then to go LONG for swing up.   If we don't get bottom Swing action here - then IT has also topped, and were in big trouble earlier than I thought, but

one step(swing) at a time.

 

PLEASE - if what I say isn't clear,  tell me so I can make it clear .

Edited by EntropyModel, 26 February 2023 - 06:35 PM.

[EntropyModel]

gap up - shd get sold to new lows here next few sessions but THAT low would have better setup IF we get +div internals .... its EOM and most of time the ALGO's pump it up in EOM ...so may this setup gets delayed here into mid-end of week.

What I do NOT want to see is a long/lame choppy bounce here for 3-5 session without a new low/better swing up setup .....that wd be IT sell on my model.

Edited by EntropyModel, 27 February 2023 - 11:27 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Really NOT lovin' the action here or model data - there is still time to get a Swing up but ..its getting more bearish, tomorrow is really important to the setup...

ideally either a fast drop to 3900 tag, then reverse up for start of Swing up OR if we get more choppy bounce like today - I don't like it , and then I will looking for a failure

swing low - and IT sell setup.