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Told ya - hit my target


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#21 EntropyModel

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 11:11 AM

Still not lovin' this -  ST model is cycling toward sell on this long chop - that is unexpected if the Swing MOdel is going to get a buy.

There is still time today to resolve the pattern - maybe tomorrow but it needs to form a Swing low in this timeframe really.

 

Note. the model doesn't work like TA - it's similar to Chat GPT in that I use statistical inference of a large data set ... I then use TA to 'sanity check' and also as what's calls

a reflexivity component. ( the big difference is I have to do it in my head as I don't have the software, and the inference used is different for markets).

 

btm line - Ideally we do

setup 1-  sharp drop to 3900 and reverse up today or tomorrow - put in Swing low

Or

Model leans to IT sell is forming as said - we could still get weaker bounce with that, but it would be 'out of longs/shortable'.


Edited by EntropyModel, 28 February 2023 - 11:18 AM.

Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#22 EntropyModel

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Posted 28 February 2023 - 04:34 PM

This market is interesting i'll give it that!  ...yeah, i am more and more of view we have topped out from October low ( had siad this but now price - model is adding confidence).

I still want to see tomorrow and I still see higher odds we get 'some sort' of Swing UP attempt from 3900 area ..BUT ..the odds of that being much more than bouncing is lowering here

 on the model .... still, one step at time. - so still looking for setup1 above for now.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#23 EntropyModel

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Posted 01 March 2023 - 01:26 PM

Wake me up when Spx hits 3900-3920 :-)


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#24 EntropyModel

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Posted 01 March 2023 - 01:42 PM

VIX needs to spike up considerably for ST model to get buy - this is more of a 'grinder down' right now.... 

 

The 'swing up' setup risk/reward is getting less by the day here.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#25 EntropyModel

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Posted 01 March 2023 - 02:47 PM


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB

#26 EntropyModel

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Posted 01 March 2023 - 03:51 PM

If we can get sharp drop last 10 minutes ..I see finally hitting 3900 area tomorrow as the Short Term Imbalance is showing EXCESSIVE BTFD here.


Question everything, especially what you believe you know. The foundation of science is questioning the data, not trusting the data. I only trust fully falsified, non vested interest 'data', which is extremely rare in our world of paid framing narratives 'psy ops'. Market Comments https://markdavidson.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLznkbTx_dpw_-Y9bBN3QR-tiNSsFsSojB