10 replies to this topic

[4caster]

During the 1st week of Feb. of this year the whole world wasn't bullish. The 2/1/23 AAII

readings were as follows: Bulls 29.9 Neutral 35.5 and Bears 34.6. Also, during the 1st week

of Feb. it wasn't a difficult call to forecast a top when the SPX was at 4200. During the

1st week of  Feb. the RSI(14) was at 70 and the RSI(2) was at 97, both giving a top signal.

I've been trading the mkt for 54 years and during that period of time I've seen some forecasters

who say I told you so and feel that they have the mkt figured out typically end up getting humbled.

[pdx5]

Based on your 54 years valuable experience do you care to FF highs & lows for calendar year 2023? TIA.

[pdx5]

I would not be surprised to see SPX at 3215 during 2023.
Highs at 4400.

[4caster]

I have no clue as to what the highs and lows are going to be for 2023. I just look at

the price movement for the day and see if I can find a trade.

[fib_1618]

Snippet from the January 16th summary portion of the "Weekly Breadth Data" review as the market internals began to suggest a mid February top:

 

"Outside of the NASDAQ 100, the rest of the breadth and volume McClellan Summation Indexes are now back into positive territory, with many in the process of challenging their December 2nd high points. With the likelihood that these December MCSUM highs are going to be taken out during this current short term trending sequence, this would then squash any bearish market tendencies for the rest of January and then potentially into mid February as well. Furthermore, as these same internal MCSUM reaction highs are taken out, this would also conclude the 2022's bear market condition toward a more neutral and possible resumption of the previous longer term bull market trend for prices. The Open 10 TRIN's also continue to be favorable to the market bulls at this time, while the 10 day average of both the CBOE and Equity put/call ratios have now literally collapsed over the last two weeks after reaching historic "buy with both hands" levels, and taking implied put premium costs with it."

 

For what it's worth and all that jazz, but there is quite a lot of useful information here for the 1st quarter of 2023 in general.

 

Fib

 

 

[K Wave]

Based on your 54 years valuable experience do you care to FF highs & lows for calendar year 2023? TIA.

All depends on whether reality starts to set in or not.

 

If it does, Naz is going to at least Covid low by 2024.

 

And that all depends on the cultiest of stocks, Apple.

 

You can clearly see that except for the funny money Covid bump, Apple growth has been waning for years now.

Yet Apple trades with a 6 Price to Sales for company that has negative 12 month trailing revenue.

This is total clown world for a very mature company, and it is just a matter of WHEN people wake up to that reality.

It could start on Monday, or it could take a bit longer, but it IS coming.

And once Apple stock starts its secular decline, it will drag everything else with it.

 

https://www.macrotre...L/apple/revenue

Edited by K Wave, 25 February 2023 - 03:11 PM.

[K Wave]

I should add that if Apple does survive this next week without breaking, then best guess would be one last ramp to make it look like a full breakout into April earnings, and then stock gets absolutely destroyed on another lackluster quarter.

 

Perhaps not a whole lot different timewise than what happened when MMM ended its bubble run in 2018...Top in Jan 2018, and then the hammering began 15 months later when reality finally hit that the party was over there.

 

 

Mark my words.....Apple 900 week MA WILL be tagged within next couple years....and it will be evident enough when the big break does finally come.

 

Edited by K Wave, 25 February 2023 - 03:47 PM.

[pdx5]

I agree on the "reality" part completely. Reality lies straight ahead. And not just on Apple stock.

 

Fed is in no mood to pivot on rate increases. The REAL data flowing in shows inflation persists at much higher level than 2% target.

Exisiting home sales are already declining. Home owners are not ready to drop prices. New home sales are holding up because it is buy now or pay 7-8% more  next year. Add up all the debt on mortgages & credit cards and car loans. It is at record levels. If job market deteriorates, what happens to delinquencies?

 

Disclaimer: I am not a day trader. Takes too much time away from golf and cruises and other pleasurable activities. . Besides I am un-skilled in TA. My trades are 12+ months holding period. Right now I am getting the feeling stock prices are above normal valuations. The 5% guaranteed return on 6 month T-bills is looking attractive.

[EntropyModel]

During the 1st week of Feb. of this year the whole world wasn't bullish. The 2/1/23 AAII

readings were as follows: Bulls 29.9 Neutral 35.5 and Bears 34.6. Also, during the 1st week

of Feb. it wasn't a difficult call to forecast a top when the SPX was at 4200. During the

1st week of  Feb. the RSI(14) was at 70 and the RSI(2) was at 97, both giving a top signal.

I've been trading the mkt for 54 years and during that period of time I've seen some forecasters

who say I told you so and feel that they have the mkt figured out typically end up getting humbled.

 

Oh sure- the foolproof RSI(14) - lets all use that and make millions.

 

If it was so easy to call - please point me to all the calls other than mine for a swing drop from 4200 area?

 

If you make a call and it works out, I am happy for you - this is FF after all.

Edited by EntropyModel, 26 February 2023 - 03:36 PM.

[4caster]

Sounds good to me, let's all make millions based on the RSI(14). This morning the SPY

put in a double top at 401.12 so I bought the 3/03 392 Puts on the SPY at .72 and sold

them at .99. But, once again, as it turned out I sold them too early. Oh well. Have you

done a trade today, inquiring minds waant to know?