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BULLS vs POWELL & PAYROLLS


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#31 dTraderB

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Posted 07 March 2023 - 01:32 PM

CLOSING SHORTS
ES 4K TARGET TRADED

#32 linrom1

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Posted 07 March 2023 - 03:35 PM

There are some things that compute. XRT is still green for the day; bonds are up; DIT shows relative strength vs DJI. AMNZ is down only $0.30.



#33 linrom1

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Posted 07 March 2023 - 03:39 PM

NQs down 1.19% with rates up and supposedly going up for a lot longer. BS!!!



#34 dTraderB

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Posted 07 March 2023 - 04:11 PM

New LONG CALL POSITION

6 EACH QQQ & SPY
WILL ADD MORE BELOW ES 3970

#35 dTraderB

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Posted 08 March 2023 - 05:47 AM

Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) tweeted at 11:38 AM on Tue, Mar 07, 2023:
Powell's prepared remarks for his semi-annual testimony opened the door to a return of 50bp hikes at the March meeting if the incoming data flow warrants it. Upside surprises to Friday's payroll report could drive a faster and longer tightening cycle

Morgan Stanleys Zentner

#36 dTraderB

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Posted 08 March 2023 - 05:48 AM


Not following through on a 50bp hike in March could then entail an unhelpfully large easing of financial conditions. If Fridays employment data are strong, we think a 50bp hike would become the more likely outcome

Citi

Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) tweeted at 11:38 AM on Tue, Mar 07, 2023:
Powell's prepared remarks for his semi-annual testimony opened the door to a return of 50bp hikes at the March meeting if the incoming data flow warrants it. Upside surprises to Friday's payroll report could drive a faster and longer tightening cycle

Morgan Stanleys Zentner



#37 dTraderB

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Posted 08 March 2023 - 05:49 AM

If the whole narrative is at the mercy of one jobs report and a CPI print. Its arguably a pretty flakey narrative to begin with.

Not following through on a 50bp hike in March could then entail an unhelpfully large easing of financial conditions. If Fridays employment data are strong, we think a 50bp hike would become the more likely outcome

Citi

Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) tweeted at 11:38 AM on Tue, Mar 07, 2023:
Powell's prepared remarks for his semi-annual testimony opened the door to a return of 50bp hikes at the March meeting if the incoming data flow warrants it. Upside surprises to Friday's payroll report could drive a faster and longer tightening cycle

Morgan Stanleys Zentner



#38 dTraderB

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Posted 08 March 2023 - 05:49 AM

validate the market move and, in the process, negate in an embarrassing fashion the forward policy guidance provided just a month ago; or stick with that guidance and fall further behind in the battle against inflation

@elerianm on Powells dilemma

If the whole narrative is at the mercy of one jobs report and a CPI print. Its arguably a pretty flakey narrative to begin with.

Not following through on a 50bp hike in March could then entail an unhelpfully large easing of financial conditions. If Fridays employment data are strong, we think a 50bp hike would become the more likely outcome

Citi

Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) tweeted at 11:38 AM on Tue, Mar 07, 2023:
Powell's prepared remarks for his semi-annual testimony opened the door to a return of 50bp hikes at the March meeting if the incoming data flow warrants it. Upside surprises to Friday's payroll report could drive a faster and longer tightening cycle

Morgan Stanleys Zentner



#39 dTraderB

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Posted 08 March 2023 - 05:50 AM

willingness to upend prior forward guidance underscores uncertainty around the level of the fed funds rate that is sufficiently restrictive the market should not be comfortable with the notion that a terminal rate near 5.5% is sufficient

Deutsche Banks Matt Luzzetti

#40 dTraderB

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Posted 08 March 2023 - 05:51 AM

Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) tweeted at 6:20 AM on Wed, Mar 08, 2023:
Morning Note:

-U.S. 2-yr yield rises above 5%
-Fed Chair Powell day-2 in DC
-ADP + JOLTS data coming up

willingness to upend prior forward guidance underscores uncertainty around the level of the fed funds rate that is sufficiently restrictive the market should not be comfortable with the notion that a terminal rate near 5.5% is sufficient

Deutsche Banks Matt Luzzetti