39 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

VIX rises. 

 

Just my 2cents - based on model & TA and other 'stuff'  - we are at a critical price and time pivot on all timeframes right here, so tomorrow will be a HUGE tell

 

As I've said - I believe the October bounce high is in, but its not clear if we are ready to breakdown ..I see still time ..a few weeks max ..for bounce attempts but

this bounce up/and last few days is ugly internally ...so... odds of upside is reducing, especially if tomorrow is down or cannot reverse today strongly back up internally.

 

Key pivots Swing 3980 hourly close ...IT 3930 daily close ...and bull/bear 3900 weekly close.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 March 2023 - 06:20 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

Looking at my model, a looking at a buy signal we have a lot of cross currents, so I agree the odds of upside is reducing over the last couple of trading days.   

[EntropyModel]

Yeah my ST model is bearish here - so we 'shd' drop tomorrow ...thus it will be big sign of unfinished IT or larger trend if we power back up - as it wd be against the ST odds here.

 

If higher trends are done - we gap down/or roll over AM and don't look back very similar to say early April 2022 bounce and early Sept bounce - so, market will tell us I believe very shortly  as in tomorrow most likely.

 

So many things are lining up bearishly on my stuff - vix, LQ, sentiment, internals which did a horrible shimmy here - I am firmly bearish IT and longer term now and for me its just a question of when not if we start new IT downtrend, weekly close under 3900 wd confirm its begun on my system - if we are not quite ready it will  likely be clear tomorrow with a failure to breakdown and algo driven move back up - but internals must improve or it will quickly roll over again, they really are falling apart now.

Edited by EntropyModel, 07 March 2023 - 11:03 PM.

[pdx5]

 

Edited by pdx5, 08 March 2023 - 12:55 AM.

[pdx5]

Above chart is behavior of SPX during high inflation years 1977-1982.

I expect similar behavior during 2021-2025 years of infaltion.

Edited by pdx5, 08 March 2023 - 01:00 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Thx for the chart Pdx5 ... and I can see there being some rhyme to the period ...if only because many will use it as a reference.

However, for the many reasons i've gone over at length our situations is clearly and obviously exponential worse in terms of market risks (stocks, housing) - maybe economy could be similar initially but as time goes

on I see massive risk there to.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - the TWO key difference to the 1970's ..for those who don't want get into detail or my long posts/videos here' a short summary of my analysis/views - 

 

1. Our economy is now a CREDIt/DEBT based one - FED have balance sheet of 10+ trillion, Government debt is historic compared to GDP runing at 120%+ (almost banana republic levels, and the GDP part is fake due to QE/Govt DEBT),

consumer/personal/cooperate debt is historic ..    THIS makes our economy INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE - or 'addicted to low rates' , I mean, that is sole purpose of QE ! to use money of thin air to buy treasuries to lower rates precisely

because the FED understand that we cannot tolerate higher rates .... 

 

2. Global US $ Hegemony - the global financial system emerged in 1980s - since then, when a financial crises/recession occurs, all the world RISK AVERSE CAPITAL FLIGHTS TO SAFETY of US$ TREASURIES ..'tis obvious and simple ..this

LOWERS our INTEREST RATES ... and let US recover and FED do things like increase money supply without causing inflation because cost of capital is low in US ...

 - if ^this were to end,  then FED won't be able to use its 'one trick' of 'mo credit' ...and worse, the entire existing asset bubbles could collapse as foreign risk capital recognizes this change, and flights out of US assets ! ...add to this,that

China and Russia understand this and are actively using it again us - by trying to trade commodities not in $'s ...and buy up commodities to pressure our bond market.

 

I don't really know how to say this politely, but, the FED's 'live for today' credit machine has unfortunately convinced most that reality doesn't exist, but alas it does, and they cannot 'fake reality' forever, their and our luck has run out, there

is no way out as I said early 2022 ...because we are 'boxed in' by Asia growth and K-spring ... and end of deflationary period which allowed FED to kick our debt crises down the road ....we are now at the end of that road plain and simple, but

most do not want to see it, which wont' change the outcome unfortunately.

 

Here is how I explain it to non financial people - If I go bankrupt, I can borrow from the bank and everything appears ok - this is what FED did last 25 years ..1+1=2 ....it's only a problem if my bank 'calls in that loan' - what calls in the FED's 'loan' ?- the above,

the reality of limited real world supply they cannot control, and our enemies using that against us.

 

The same people that don't want to recognize this simple reality, are the same one who did'n't see Enron coming or 2000 crises, or the 2007-2009 crises both of which were so obvious - this crises is orders of magnitude bigger because those

were controlled 'vicious cycles' which didn't change the system, this is a building systemic crises of fiancial system which all relies now on FED money creation machine which is getting cut off - and massive global liquidity crises ..it likely

will play out slower than previous but last much longer and go much deeper eventually .. I actually believe into 2030'ish and result in end of credit system and bring in new Digital system, infact i'm sure that is the goal.

 

I don't say this because i'm 'bearish',  its just my view from a massive amount of study attempt to understanding the system over last 23 years.

Edited by EntropyModel, 08 March 2023 - 01:03 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Of course none of the ABOVE has anything to do with Swing, IT or even major trend market moves - its more of the SECULAR environment as i've gone over in video for stocks/bonds/commodites.

 

For those shorter term, better to look at technicals  -

 

Talking of which today - we've had weak bounce attempt , its going to be where we cLOSE that matter on level I have above but as I said if it doesn't turn back up strongly, its bearish.

 

* BKX/IWM leading down - comp holding up because that is the game 

Edited by EntropyModel, 08 March 2023 - 01:32 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Meh - no clear decision today but for me leans bearish - because internals momo is down and didn't turn, and because we followed the ST signals which means higher trend is no longer strong up ...

 

We can chop around - but any more down side will confirm ... I cd see another bounce off 3930-3950 area if we drop a bit more ...

 

Or if it bounces tomorrow I think its limited now

[EntropyModel]

FYI - I just found an AMAZING pattern match on the DOW...It also fits the setup - btm line of it is 

 -  If 32500 holds here ...there cd be one more fast move up to around 33600-34000 ...then, a collapse to 30000 area.

- if it doesn't hold - triggered already.

 

Setups don't always play out - but its a really good one. It doesn't say what comp or Spx wd do, only applies on DOW FWIW