90 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Here is the Fractal and some signals to the road map - hopefully help make it clearer

* I shd have added, also the dollar will have alot to say on whether we terminate here ..or get that next green box ..dollar would have to keep falling, it

'shd' bounce though which will cause termination.

https://www.youtube....h?v=cy7t_wuKPzo

Edited by EntropyModel, 23 March 2023 - 12:51 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Unusual bounce this AM - likely was due to huge imbalance -

- WAY too much BTFD before FED

- WAY too much 'panic' into close

https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODAzOTQyNV8yMTE4NzIwMQ

Now normalized .

[EntropyModel]

Yep - so there's the secondary drop .. I calculate VIX will >26 to get 2nd low chance here ...so going to be interesting as I said to see if SPX can hold 3900-3910 for

next fractal leg up.

[EntropyModel]

I expect this 3900-3920 area to be defended by ALGO's to the MAX ....as if/when that goes, at minimum we will retest ...and well see if the 2ndary fractal move up still

comes or not - if not, we're ready to move down to 3600.

[EntropyModel]

WAS the fractal video CLEAR or too complicated? ...difficult to explain alas.

TOMORROW is key(weekly close) -  ST model showing more TIME is likely in the orange retrace box ..even if we are going next leg green up ....

So i Am looking for either

- a choppy bounce tomorrow Or

- choppy test of 3900-3910 area 

 

IF that area breaks as said, it changes everything - what I can see here, is alot of 'dislocation' where comp, dow, NYSE, SPX and sectors are all in different patterns and

so going to be a bit confusing - so i'll continue to focus just on SPX.

Edited by EntropyModel, 23 March 2023 - 05:52 PM.

[skott]

I think I understood the video.

 

Russell 2000 looks very sick. Look at longggg term charts

[Waver]

 

WAS the fractal video CLEAR or too complicated? ...difficult to explain alas.

TOMORROW is key(weekly close) -  ST model showing more TIME is likely in the orange retrace box ..even if we are going next leg green up ....

So i Am looking for either

- a choppy bounce tomorrow Or

- choppy test of 3900-3910 area 

 

IF that area breaks as said, it changes everything - what I can see here, is alot of 'dislocation' where comp, dow, NYSE, SPX and sectors are all in different patterns and

so going to be a bit confusing - so i'll continue to focus just on SPX.

 

Good call so far on the 3910!

Let's See!

[EntropyModel]

Thx Waver.

 

Cd be Dollar reversal up right where expected - that is important if so ..need a bit more confirmatio.

We tested that 3910 - held ...for now ...need to see what sort of bounce we get here, i'm not certain were done 'testing' this area(*today I shd say).

 

ST model is NOT yet in high odds up zone ...so bounces are likely to retrace at least.

 

We're entertering a critical decision window close today and early next week - to read our strength of this 'fractal repeat' ..it look MUCH weaker

 on model (internals) 

Edited by EntropyModel, 24 March 2023 - 11:56 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Market NOT showing it hand yet! ..critical close today and mon- tue to see relative strength to fractal boxes.

[EntropyModel]

Drop post FED is CORRECTIVE - as is today bounce ...so it a 'bit of a mess' ...

 

As said, I think we're in a long process of exhaustion sucking in every last $ that wants long, and minimizing shorts- my data confirms this read of the tape.

 

But it does NOT look done to me ...so more of the same next week ....

 

HOWEVER - i'm seeing a couple of MASSIVE ANOMALIES - summations for one ... so this is getting VERY ODD ...I suspect there was some support this week due to banks, but usually

that doesn't last.

 

So its complex mess on ST - swing ....but overall as i've said, look more and more bearish on longer term here.