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T Theory: Rally till the Ides of May?


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 12:58 PM

In late winter, I mentioned Gene Inger's market maven commentary when he would warn of the Ides of March low by way of Houston.

We sure enough landed in Houston near mid March. Are we now headed to New York via NYSE highs by the Ides of May?

This novice T maker says: "Could be"... "Go Away in May" ???

(My simple T formula is based on the MACD of the NYUD, bottom indicator.)

PS: I have noticed NYUD extremes (small dots in top chart), usually indicate an extreme s/t sentiment condition, often reversed price soon.

(CAUTION: the end of day NYUD is seldom, if ever, the actual final reading)

Ides-of-March-to-Ides-of-May.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 28 March 2023 - 01:21 PM.


#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 01:07 PM

I see it's likely an IT bottom here and I will confirm soon as more data coming in ..................


Edited by redfoliage2, 28 March 2023 - 01:09 PM.


#3 pdx5

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 01:16 PM

This is unusual year, as was 2022. The high inflation goblin has not been around since 1982, 4 decades ago. Which is why I am ignoring usual charting tools and relying more on what happened during previous high inflation era 1977-1982. Rinse & Repeat.

Edited by pdx5, 28 March 2023 - 01:17 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#4 redfoliage2

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 02:13 PM

I see it's likely an IT bottom here and I will confirm soon as more data coming in ..................

To be confirmed in the afternoon Friday ...........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 28 March 2023 - 02:14 PM.


#5 RadioHead

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 02:59 PM

Short-term looks bullish. Let's see if the market can rally Wednesday.



#6 redfoliage2

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 03:09 PM

NYMO (EOD) likely to be up again today ..........................


Edited by redfoliage2, 28 March 2023 - 03:11 PM.


#7 pdx5

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 06:01 PM

Following previous high inflation periods, market bottom should be 35% to 40% lower than recent high of 4800.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#8 K Wave

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 06:20 PM

Bears had shot a cracking it today...but if those small cracks that did develop all get sealed tomorrow, then up for a while very possible...

 

But if they only get bigger tomorrow, then less likely.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#9 slupert

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 06:25 PM

This is unusual year, as was 2022. The high inflation goblin has not been around since 1982, 4 decades ago. Which is why I am ignoring usual charting tools and relying more on what happened during previous high inflation era 1977-1982. Rinse & Repeat.

I think he should have went 50 and nd let them wring all the fear out. It's gong to happen sooner or later anyway.



#10 pdx5

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Posted 28 March 2023 - 11:49 PM

The favorable seasonality for bulls is coming to an end by mid-April. Until then bulls should prevail.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule