260 replies to this topic

[K Wave]

Big REIT EQIX

 

To breakout or not to breakout....

 

[K Wave]

Yay the raging bull market is continuing on today.  Sorry got a little excited as the bulls always come out of hiding whenever there is a little rally in this flat market that has been going on now for about 16 months.  Talk to me about it being a bull after we make new all time highs!!  Up from the bottom yes but cmon get real, the everything bubble is still leaking and the economy is just starting to feel it. 78% of the population sees the economy getting worse so I think the grind market will continue at least until there is a glimmer of hope of a turn.  Right now the Fed is still threatening higher rates so its hard to see the economy turning up here, its still coming down.  The only reason the big stocks even beat their earnings was because they were cut in half from initial estimates for the year.  This rally may go a bit higher but to go crazy calling it a bull market in a way overvalued market, only a few stocks holding it up, call options back to inflated values, bonds remaining high competing with stocks, I think you've got to be kidding.  Grind baby grind!!  Anyhow, either way I'll be trading either way and for now I'm just keeping my short build going with an average 4135 right now.

It is an ongoing bull in the major indexes until 900s are all taken out....

 

Could it turn into a bear? Sure...

 

But if Trannies and RUT recover key pivots, that would become less likely.

Trannies should stop around 14K (where they are now) if they are going to stay down. IF not, beware potential for full reversal.

 

I am still leaning somewhat to bearish outcome....IF...things turn down hard in early May

But if not, nothing overwhelmingly bearish yet, and would be even less so if things start to really ramp upside after Apple.

So if Apple earnings do not mark the top before turn back down, have to respect the chart action.

 

Majors

 

Tran/RUT

[K Wave]

And there's the head bang on Trannies...

 

They have to stay down now to lead any turn into bear mode....

 

[K Wave]

Also watching XLE closely here...if 85 holds as resistance, and yesterday's pivot gets taken out, would be another warning sign....

 

But if not, then bulls start to look a bit better there...

 

[K Wave]

How this All Hour GS chart resolves could also be a big tell coming soon....

 

 

 

Bottom line: no great bear until most all the Big Kahunas of the indexes get in gear downside.

 

And so far...none of them in serious bear market

 

And if more things start to follow things like XHB and Softy with 4 hour liftoffs...best to pay attention...

 

Edited by K Wave, 28 April 2023 - 09:51 AM.

[K Wave]

This about where bears likely have to stop Rusty...cuz if it blows this out, then 1800 could get taken as well, and that would not be good for bulls, as it could easily mark a final shakeout power reverse....and those are generally NOT bearish.

 

See what happens dead ahead over next few days....

 

Edited by K Wave, 28 April 2023 - 09:57 AM.

[K Wave]

So for bears...need to see failure real soon, and SOX TRAN RUT take out the swing lows

 

before bulls take the swing highs....

 

SOX back under 2900 could be first indication bears still have bad intent for the bull campsite...

[K Wave]

Watching SOX super closely for possible BIG tell...

 

Bulls need power launch off the 4 hour 200 to stay alive.

 

Another 4 hour close underneath likely spells doom...

 

[K Wave]

Dow situation....Bears have to reclaim first the overnight floor area, and then more importantly 33600, before they can claim any type of final throwover victory...

 

 

 

[12SPX]

This period reminds me to much of 2001 to 2003 after the initial crash of the internet bubble, all grind where we saw a bit of a rally and then a new low made.  From there we went up but grinded from 2003-2008 to reach back to old highs before going down again.  I remember the market was so boring that I didn't even day trade just sold options for like 3 or 4 years.