2 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

According to my risk summation system, the day next week with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Wednesday May 7th.

 

Last week the Tuesday risk window started off good, looking like a local top of some sort.  It even had a gap down, but Thursday the down trend was broken making the Tuesday risk window a dud.  The Friday June 2nd risk window appears to have been an acceleration event in the new up trend which started Thursday, but it could also be a top if the 33,800 level holds and the DJIA declines next week.  Monday's action should clarify what sort of risk window it was.

 

 

The diverging NDX AD line below that I posted last week got back in sync with the index and broke to new local highs scrapping the negative divergence, the green "fail" trend line in the DJIA further below that I posted last week for my bearish EWave count is still holding but is under threat, and Joe and Kevin made nice and agreed to flood the economy with 4 or so trillion of spending, so bear bashing all around this past week. 

 

 

I suppose the next couple of little potential speed bumps for the bulls will be the inflation figures on Tuesday June 13th and Powell's presser and interest rate decision the next day on Wednesday June 14th week after next, but given the pause/skip steady drum beat I don't expect anything too negative from the Fed, and the inflation trend of late has been down, so that too should be tame.  It's enough to make crusty old bears like me a bit bullish and bulls downright giddy.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 03 June 2023 - 11:37 AM.

[slupert]

According to my risk summation system, the day next week with the highest chance of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA is Wednesday May 7th.

 

Last week the Tuesday risk window started off good, looking like a local top of some sort.  It even had a gap down, but Thursday the down trend was broken making the Tuesday risk window a dud.  The Friday June 2nd risk window appears to have been an acceleration event in the new up trend which started Thursday, but it could also be a top if the 33,800 level holds and the DJIA declines next week.  Monday's action should clarify what sort of risk window it was.

 

 

The diverging NDX AD line below that I posted last week got back in sync with the index and broke to new local highs scrapping the negative divergence, the green "fail" trend line in the DJIA further below that I posted last week for my bearish EWave count is still holding but is under threat, and Joe and Kevin made nice and agreed to flood the economy with 4 or so trillion of spending, so bear bashing all around this past week. 

 

 

I suppose the next couple of little potential speed bumps for the bulls will be the inflation figures on Tuesday June 13th and Powell's presser and interest rate decision the next day on Wednesday June 14th week after next, but given the pause/skip steady drum beat I don't expect anything too negative from the Fed, and the inflation trend of late has been down, so that too should be tame.  It's enough to make crusty old bears like me a bit bullish and bulls downright giddy.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

Jay was out partying last ight at the Dead show in KC. Jay is on the bus!

Edited by slupert, 04 June 2023 - 01:10 PM.

[Douglas]

To get a handle on investor sentiment I track the average of several surveys as shown below.  The reading as of late just above 50% is nearing the highs since the most recent top which were able to turn down rallies, but it is not as high as values seen during recent past bull market moves in the upper 60's.  So, if the bear still prowls, sentiment is problematic, if the bull rules the pasture, then sentiment readings should continue to climb.   This is one way the rutting bull can mark his territory in the next couple of weeks.  Stay tuned.

 

 

Regards,

Douglas