30 replies to this topic

[dougie]

Fib: is this the ultimate upside target or just for this cycle or?

[senorBS]

I was asked privately to provide an updated chart for the price of gold with the PM BPI data...here you go through February 7th.

 

Still looking to be on target...let's average between the two price objectives at around $4400.

 

The small triangle breakout of mid January is around $2975.

 

Fib

 

https://tinyurl.com/25bzr4vs

 

 

Well Fib getting closer to your $4400 projection, any further thoughts?

 

Senor

[senorBS]

Even closer at a 4371 high so far, also pretty much straight up vertical stage, blowoff getting closer to ending?

 

Senor

[fib_1618]

Even closer at a 4371 high so far, also pretty much straight up vertical stage, blowoff getting closer to ending?

 

Senor

 

One would think so as gold tends to have blow off tops and rounding or platform bottoms. As of Friday, the 8 day and 13 day ADX indicators are suggesting "trend exhaustion", so some backing and filling to around the $4200 (and maybe even the $4000) level is to be expected over the next week or two just to shake things up. Also remember that these measuring objectives tend to be on a closing basis.

 

But the good news for the gold bugs is that the minimum upside target has now been reached at $4200, and with the price of silver at new all time highs, it's also likely that the higher target of $4600 will be met as well. In fact, this year's April to August price consolidation structure provides us with a new upside breakout (5th wave) objective to around the $5000/$5100 level as all of the unwilling buyers are forced to join the crowd. As a guess, this peak would likely take place as the current cuts in interest rates comes to an end with the December FOMC meeting for a total of another 1/2 point decline from today's target rate.

 

For now...the easy part of the trade from the $2000 level is behind us where traders and investors who have been long the metal(s) should be monitoring the upside progress for a 1980 type exit in January. As it was back then, a significant increase in radio, television and social media ads to buy gold and silver will bring a familiar tone that the end of the run is just around the corner...just like we always hear with the price peaks of crude oil.

 

Fib

[senorBS]

 

Even closer at a 4371 high so far, also pretty much straight up vertical stage, blowoff getting closer to ending?

 

Senor

 

One would think so as gold tends to have blow off tops and rounding or platform bottoms. As of Friday, the 8 day and 13 day ADX indicators are suggesting "trend exhaustion", so some backing and filling to around the $4200 (and maybe even the $4000) level is to be expected over the next week or two just to shake things up. Also remember that these measuring objectives tend to be on a closing basis.

 

But the good news for the gold bugs is that the minimum upside target has now been reached at $4200, and with the price of silver at new all time highs, it's also likely that the higher target of $4600 will be met as well. In fact, this year's April to August price consolidation structure provides us with a new upside breakout (5th wave) objective to around the $5000/$5100 level as all of the unwilling buyers are forced to join the crowd. As a guess, this peak would likely take place as the current cuts in interest rates comes to an end with the December FOMC meeting for a total of another 1/2 point decline from today's target rate.

 

For now...the easy part of the trade from the $2000 level is behind us where traders and investors who have been long the metal(s) should be monitoring the upside progress for a 1980 type exit in January. As it was back then, a significant increase in radio, television and social media ads to buy gold and silver will bring a familiar tone that the end of the run is just around the corner...just like we always hear with the price peaks of crude oil.

 

Fib

 

Bueno stuff amigo! Gracias

 

Senor

[fib_1618]

Con Gusto!

 

Fib

[claire]

 

 

Even closer at a 4371 high so far, also pretty much straight up vertical stage, blowoff getting closer to ending?

 

Senor

 

One would think so as gold tends to have blow off tops and rounding or platform bottoms. As of Friday, the 8 day and 13 day ADX indicators are suggesting "trend exhaustion", so some backing and filling to around the $4200 (and maybe even the $4000) level is to be expected over the next week or two just to shake things up. Also remember that these measuring objectives tend to be on a closing basis.

 

But the good news for the gold bugs is that the minimum upside target has now been reached at $4200, and with the price of silver at new all time highs, it's also likely that the higher target of $4600 will be met as well. In fact, this year's April to August price consolidation structure provides us with a new upside breakout (5th wave) objective to around the $5000/$5100 level as all of the unwilling buyers are forced to join the crowd. As a guess, this peak would likely take place as the current cuts in interest rates comes to an end with the December FOMC meeting for a total of another 1/2 point decline from today's target rate.

 

For now...the easy part of the trade from the $2000 level is behind us where traders and investors who have been long the metal(s) should be monitoring the upside progress for a 1980 type exit in January. As it was back then, a significant increase in radio, television and social media ads to buy gold and silver will bring a familiar tone that the end of the run is just around the corner...just like we always hear with the price peaks of crude oil.

 

Fib

 

Bueno stuff amigo! Gracias

 

Senor

 

 

Fib_1618, , What are your expectations for Gold after January, "the end of the run?"  Do you expect a significant drop in the price of gold, going forward after that?   Congratulations on your remarkably accurate price prediction. 

[fib_1618]

Hi Claire...hope you're doing well!!

 

At this time there are no new upside or downside price targets, so I would expect some sort of consolidation at and around these levels before a final run higher into December/January.

 

If something changes pattern wise I will make a post.

 

Thank you for your kind remark.

 

Fib

[claire]

Hi Claire...hope you're doing well!!

 

At this time there are no new upside or downside price targets, so I would expect some sort of consolidation at and around these levels before a final run higher into December/January.

 

If something changes pattern wise I will make a post.

 

Thank you for your kind remark.

 

Fib

 

Thanks for the update. I keep thinking about the precision of your price expectation for gold as long as a year ago, maybe longer. Very impressive! I'll check for any of your posts with further information and want you to know that your generosity in sharing your expertise is very helpful for me, and, without doubt, for many others who lurk here.

 

I'm getting very old but hanging in. I hope you're well.

 

Claire

[fib_1618]

With all of the precious metals currently making new all time highs, the expectation of a January top might be something more than that of a simple blow off variety given silver's and platinum's recent strength this month. In any event, things are moving as gold's price pattern suggested back in October, so let's continue to look for exit signs next month purely on a technical basis at around the $5150 level plus or minus 5%. I suggest using the Parabolic SAR indicator to help fine tune a sell (lighten up) signal without having to deal with any emotionalism.

 

Sentiment wise, current media and advertising excitement for the precious metals asset class is sure ripe for a top at any time.

 

Happy and prosperous new year to one and all!

 

Fib