8 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

So, the SPX ITBM has been diverging badly since May, but in recent days, it has turned up, crossed the signal line and managed to get back above zero. At a time when I would expect things to be deteriorating, in fact, things seem to be getting stronger and more healthy.

 

https://schrts.co/qvqYjUTf

[Douglas]

Well, to poorly quote Sergio Leone,

 

It's a tale of the good:

 

The Bad and the Ugly:

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 02 October 2025 - 02:26 PM.

[RadioHead]

Tomorrow the market either going to go up because the report is strong and the economy is fine or going to go up because the report is bad and Fed will cut rates .

[Douglas]

There's nothing quite like the sweet scent of FOMO wafting on a gentle early morning breeze.  Just kidding.  Bear that I am, I too am getting buying twitches which is usually a bad sign. 

 

If the DJIA makes a new high today or in the next few days, it trashes my September top-of-some-sort call and puts a very big question mark beside my October sell off call.  I swore off physical abuse of my cracked crystal ball for lent, but that reprieve has expired and this potential bad set of calls is pushing me to my breaking point with that sorcererous thing. 

 

RadioHead, you certainly are correct that in today's topsy-turvy world, good news is good news and bad news is good news.   

 

Just for grins and giggles, the following is my EWave way of looking at the run up in the DJIA since the April low:

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 03 October 2025 - 06:04 AM.

[fib_1618]

There's nothing quite like the sweet scent of FOMO wafting on a gentle early morning breeze.  Just kidding.  Bear that I am, I too am getting buying twitches which is usually a bad sign. 

 

If the DJIA makes a new high today or in the next few days, it trashes my September top-of-some-sort call and puts a very big question mark beside my October sell off call.  I swore off physical abuse of my cracked crystal ball for lent, but that reprieve has expired and this potential bad set of calls is pushing me to my breaking point with that sorcererous thing. 

 

RadioHead, you certainly are correct that in today's topsy-turvy world, good news is good news and bad news is good news.   

 

Just for grins and giggles, the following is my EWave way of looking at the run up in the DJIA since the April low:

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

Suggest that you apply either a breadth based or price based momentum indicator to verify your count.

 

Specifically: wave "3" (or "A") would have the greatest levels of momentum in any or all Elliott patterns in which wave "5" (or "C") diverge...the degree of count notwithstanding.

 

Fib

[Douglas]

Fib, if I add a 5 by 34 EWave MACD momentum oscillator it makes me want to change my count as shown below (3 at peak momentum, 4 at near zero reading).  This count might allow for a new high 5th wave which is what I was hoping to avoid just so I don't have to smash my cracked crystal ball yet again.  That gypsy lady down by the swamp is probably tired of selling me a new one every few weeks. 

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 03 October 2025 - 08:30 AM.

[gismeu]

There's nothing quite like the sweet scent of FOMO wafting on a gentle early morning breeze.  Just kidding.  Bear that I am, I too am getting buying twitches which is usually a bad sign. 

 

If the DJIA makes a new high today or in the next few days, it trashes my September top-of-some-sort call and puts a very big question mark beside my October sell off call.  I swore off physical abuse of my cracked crystal ball for lent, but that reprieve has expired and this potential bad set of calls is pushing me to my breaking point with that sorcererous thing. 

 

RadioHead, you certainly are correct that in today's topsy-turvy world, good news is good news and bad news is good news.   

 

Just for grins and giggles, the following is my EWave way of looking at the run up in the DJIA since the April low:

 

 

Regards,

Douglas

Move your green wave 3 more towards where your green wave 5 is. With Jupiter being where it currently is, we should have a few more weeks to go (up) before a 'major' correction.

 

gis

Edited by gismeu, 03 October 2025 - 09:04 AM.

[Douglas]

gismeu, your tagline reminds me of something that a hedonistic friend of mine used to say, "Money can't buy happiness, but it can buy a reasonable facsimile." 

 

And yes, based on the big DJIA rally today my EWave counts above are both worthless as tits on a boar hog, which, if you've seen my EWave posts here in the past, is what typically happens before the ink is even dry on the paper. That is precisely why I said they were for "grins and giggles", not worth the digital ones and zeros they were written in.  

 

As to what the "correct" count is, you are probably correct and the DJIA is still stuck somewhere in the 3rd wave up to the stratosphere.  I suppose I'll wait until the dust from the thundering herd settles a bit before I put pen to paper for another  attempt at authoring one of my EWave masterpieces of comedy.

 

Bludgeoned and bleeding but unbowed, 

Douglas

[GDA]

To keep it simple, all you need to know is that since April upswings have been longer than downswings, and more points have been gained in upswings than lost in downswings.