28 replies to this topic

[blustar]

The wave structure suggests a [y] wave of Z gap up to resistance on the SPX ~ 6805/06 on the CPI report and a likely drop to ~6532/33 Monday on a gap down [z] of Z.  We have the positive Mercury sextile Jupiter early today, but then the negative Mercury sextile to Saturn tonight as Jupiter and Saturn come together in a sextile and on the 17th of November an imperfect trine.

 

Next week's FED meeting reminds of the same set up of the Jan 27-31 2020 bottom right before the COVID crash with a high on Friday, a major low on Monday and top on Wednesday, followed by a lower irregular low on Friday finishing on a lower low for the month.

 

Tuesday see Mars trine Jupiter, expect a relief pop [a] up then pullback [b], then on Wednesday Mercury sextiles Neptune but then Mars trines Saturn (not good) later in the day as Mercury sextiles Uranus, so [c] here. Late in the day Thursday Mercury sextiles Pluto setting up a hard drop into Friday, a-b-c down.

 

On Nov 4, Mars opposes Uranus, which often warns of the possibility of a major top possible nearby. I see that top being Dec 1, which could be it for the market for a few years, maybe into 2028.

 

Today also sees the Sun sq. Pluto!

Edited by blustar, 24 October 2025 - 07:23 AM.

[blustar]

Actually, my target should have been SPX 6803/04 but it came up shy by 2 points. A large drop into Monday is expected, I'm thinking 6532/33 SPX

[blustar]

should have stayed with SPX 6805/06! LOL

[12SPX]

Hard to believe it could happen but interestingly if we compare the 1998 to April 1999 rally after its -20% decline the market rallied +40% just like we hit this morning with the S&P hitting 6800.  From there volatility kicked in seeing -3-5% corrections start even though the market did continue higher.  Of course the S&P peaked in March of 2000 +13% higher in the end so if your a believer of this AI rally being similar to the dot-com rally is the risk worthy, debatable.....

[bigtrader]

Maybe a weekend surprise after Halloween or early Nov.

[4caster]

Many of the dot com stocks had no or very little earnings. Some of the dot com companies used ipo's to raise

their initial capital. Many of the AI companies actually have earnings and most of them are doing quite well.

The question becomes is what P/E are you willing to pay for this mkt.

[12SPX]

That is so not true.  Just like in the dot.com era that I remember like it was yesterday, 93% of stocks back then don't make money.  Microsoft, Apple, Cisco, Intel, AOL, Yahoo, E-bay even Amazon started making money. Today 93% of AI stocks don't make money with the mag 7 holding it up.  No different and p/e ratios are about equal.  I'm not saying the rally won't continue but if your holding stocks it may be time to start taking some profits off as the risk holding is huge!!  I was saying the same thing in 2000 when the Nasdaq crossed 5000 and said eventually the index wouldn't see new highs for 15 years.  We're coming into that period once again.  It's just not worth the risk to grab that last point....

[blustar]

The SPX tagged my target of 6805/06 to the tee!

 

We are past the joyous Mercury in Scorpio trine Jupiter in Cancer (trine not sextile as I said before) and the SPX is just plain stuck right now. Traders will finally figure this out, I believe and start selling pretty soon. I expect most of the selling will likely occur on a nasty gap down on Monday. Target is ~ 6533/34 SPX.

 

Mercury (the messenger) likely has something nasty in store for us on Monday as tomorrow it trines the malefic Saturn in Pisces.

 

I expect an inverse red hammer and a move below yesterday's close late today. The SPX could gap down by around 3% Monday. It would not surprise me that Trump might announce something to do with tariffs again, cuz that seems to be his mood lately. China?

[andr99]

sorry, but if this is a major top, I'm batman. This is not a major top, nor a top of any kind. The stock market has just placed a short term bear trap and the herd has been trapped, why should they

 

let it escape from the cage ? The only major top we recently saw is that on gold miners, I think.   

Edited by andr99, 24 October 2025 - 11:36 AM.

[12SPX]

Many of the dot com stocks had no or very little earnings. Some of the dot com companies used ipo's to raise

their initial capital. Many of the AI companies actually have earnings and most of them are doing quite well.

The question becomes is what P/E are you willing to pay for this mkt.

Btw I never consider myself a bull or bear as 90% of my trading is selling out of the money options between cycles but when volatility drys up "during the trading day" that is not healthy.  for example, its great were up here but now with no volume were not moving up or down, just sitting and that is not healthy.