28 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Awww well my point is that one day the obvious won't happen and the way this market is set up there is always the possibility that you'll wake up to a -5% down day for no reason whatsoever so is the risk of getting another +10% in a short time worth it when you can make 4 to 6 % risk free.  I have traded through 1987, 1997, 2000, 2007 and everyone said the same thing, its going up.....Unfortunately some of those people had to wait years to make their money back!!  I don't have to worry as I trade options and am always way out of the money options.  For example I can sell the 7100 calls for $8.50 right now that expire October 17th.  Outside of selling my daily's call prices are through the roof as that is all people are buying, not healthy at all...

[andr99]

Ok, maybe you're more skilled than I am, but given that I must do what I'm able to, my time frame is the long term, where long term means months. 

[blustar]

Look at the high flyin' SOX and NDX (semiconductors, AI, tech)!  The abandoned baby candle is a rare one...  and that being said, it sure does look spooky to me for Monday!

 

 

 

My ALGO said Oct 22 +/- for a low and that was a low. The next one is Monday the 27th.

 

The pattern also demands a Z wave mini crash here on Monday. The SOX (semiconductors) could be down ~10%, the NDX 5-6% the SPX around 4%!

 

The Dow 30 could be down around 2000 points all top to bottom  

 

 

 

 

My reasoning? I believe (spewing my Elliott Wave gobble-de-gook) that the current X-Y-Z pattern (message me for a free chart) finishes a larger bullish, irregular flat [X] wave of a larger "A" due around Xmas

 

with an a-b-c x a-b-c Double Three [Y] wave due on Dec 1 around 6900 SPX. [Z] of "A" is due right before Xmas around the new moon and 2 days past for a retest.  Bottom Line: December looks bearish but November bullish.

 

"B" is due around Jan 7 and then another "C" wave crash into Jan 20 is expected. Looks like ripples in the pond from Feb-April last year to me.

 

 

 

 

Wait, I'm not through! Now here's a look at the upcoming astro outlook  which confirms my ever lovin' heavenly suspicions  .

 

 

 

 

With the Sun in Scorpio sq. Pluto in Aquarius and Mercury in Scorpio trine Jupiter in Cancer (10/24) turning to Mercury trine Saturn in Pisces this weekend (10/25) and the moon in sobering Capricorn Monday (10/27), I will say

 

that the cosmic theme here this weekend is: cracks in power structures, relationships, sudden shifts. Jupiter is expansion, Saturn is limitations. It mostly seems to me to revolve around technology... including the beast AI

 

sector.... and perhaps it being overpriced (you think ???).

 

 

 

 

The CPI report Friday helped give the nudge to the high valuations in growth tech stocks thinking the FED will lower rates next week,

 

but if you look at the broader market, it failed to match this move up  .

 

 

 

 

Bank Stocks are already rolling over. The Transports are a joke. The recent high flying Russell 2000 failed to make a new high as did the NYSE index   .

 

 

The speculative precious metals are also taking it on the chin as they were going parabolic 

 

 

 

 

Next week's combined outlook portends   a sizable rally into Wednesday's FED meeting announcement (from the expected mini meltdown on Monday) in an a-b-c [w] wave of an upward w-x-y A wave into Nov 6, likely

 

challenging the 6690-6700 SPX area after tagging SPX 6508/10 Monday. The [x] wave of A due on Oct 31 is the sobering part. You see, early on Tuesday, we have the powerful "a" of [w] upward wave due along with Mars in

 

Scorpio trines Jupiter in Cancer, very energetic.... expansive, and then early on the 29th, Mercury in Scorpio trines ever hopeful Neptune in dreamy Pisces, so the market should continue hopeful  

 

 

 

But alas, later in the day Mars trines Saturn in Pisces   as Mercury now in mutable and unstable Sagittarius makes an opposition to Uranus in unstable Gemini (think surprise, disruptions, more limitations ​ ) and the 'a'

 

wave of [x] begins and then really falls hard into early Thursday on a gap down, but then rebounds into late day in what is known as a 'b' wave of [x] as Mercury in Sagittarius now makes a sextile to Pluto in Aquarius bringing

 

back the Sun square to Pluto theme of the 24th (Mercury and the Sun are connected). Friday should see a gap down (not quite as hard as Monday, but potent) and finish on or near the low of the day, my best guess near 6470 SPX.

 

 

 

 

This set up reminds me somewhat of the late January, 2020 FED meeting (this one looks more dynamic though)

 

and you know what happened back in February/March 2020: the 35% COVID drop! Confused yet?  

 

 

 

I expect a wild week of trading next week both up and down (mostly down  ), which is great for a nimble trader like me!  Ah, but get ready for November and look to the sky once again folks  as we head for that elusive 6900 level on the SPX  . I guarantee you there will be mostly ups with a couple of downs, which is to be expected even in the best of bull markets, so nothing there to worry about here folks.  Everything will look rosy once more  as we head into the one of grandest of traditions Thanksgiving   ...And.... then comes Black Friday and a 4 day weekend and then Monday the First of December... 6900 woopie   !

 

But.... students of Elliott   know what comes next: a Y (as I call it) or irregular B wave top is always met by the dreaded Z (as I call it) or C wave drop. I hate to be a bad news  , but get ready for a collapsing Z or C of the larger [A] into right before Xmas (~ the 19th-22nd-23rd lo-hi-lo), then comes the [B] sucker's wave Santa Rally into early January (around the 7th I think) and everyone will likely be saying "it's a New Year, time to get bullish on

 

America, pop the cork    we dodged a bullet"!  Famous last words of a fool  ! 

 

 

 

Remember C (not the key but the wave), you heard it here first  !

 

 

But... am I expecting a 35% drop ahead like the COVID massacre?

 

 

 

Probably not, just a garden variety 27% drop will do just fine....

 

....and I will be there with bells on, buying puts for the post MLK Birthday payoff remembering that old adage:

 

 

 

"Bull Markets make millionaires, but Bear Markets make billionaires"

Edited by blustar, 25 October 2025 - 02:14 PM.

[blustar]

I have raised my downside target to SPX ~6568 Monday 10/27 (4 TD's) x-y-z A, then a choppy B wave (3 TD's) a-b-c or x-y-z B into early Thursday 10/30 ~6743, then C of {Z} into Friday 10/31 (1 TD) ~6439 SPX  A(4) = B(3) + C(1) Balance of Waves Principle -- TD's or Trading Days. X = 6, Y = 5, Z = 8 TD's. Ends as an irregular flat (Broadening Top) X-Y-Z "X" of {A} Wave. Then an ABC "Y" wave of {A} then the "Z" Wave {A} into ~ Xmas. We should get above 6900 by Dec 1.

 

Will the market drop on an invasion of Venezuela? 

Edited by blustar, 26 October 2025 - 02:04 PM.

[12SPX]

Ok, maybe you're more skilled than I am, but given that I must do what I'm able to, my time frame is the long term, where long term means months. 

Oh I get it that its likely going to continue up but when you don't have corrections such as 7 months up in a row with not even a -3% correction it's unhealthy.  Your right a longer term top could take a few more months but I'd be concerned for +10% more if we stay in this mode becasue if we don't see volatility kick in with the market priced for perfection that's scary.  You could easily wake up to a -5 to -10% down day.  Now if we saw volatility kick in and we saw -5% down, I'd trade both ways again and we could go +20% higher as that is healthy. It's all about volatility to keep it healthy.  Here's an interesting stat.  S&P500 hasn't seen a -3% correction in 48 trading days.  The record is 52..... hmmmmm

[GDA]

Will the market drop on an invasion of Venezuela? 

Grasping for straws...

[brucekeller]

I don't come on here too often anymore, but when I do, blustar is calling for yet another top. 

[ZIDANE]

I don't come on here too often anymore, but when I do, blustar is calling for yet another top.

lol …watch the sky!

[andr99]

I don't come on here too often anymore, but when I do, blustar is calling for yet another top. 

 

I'm gratefull to this site because it has helped me to get where I am now as a stock trader. Here I could find over the years people with a complete different view of the stock market than mine and that 

 

is a lot more usefull than listening to my ego alone. I have done the rest of the work, but the input for that has come from here.  EOM.