222 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

YAHOO FINANCE: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) faces significant challenges amid weakening consumer sentiment and disappointing earnings. Analysts have responded by cutting price targets and expressing growing concerns about the company's performance and competitive position.

 

The Chipotle indicator: Is the economy teetering on a recession or nah?

In lieu of official economic data (thanks, government shutdown), we have the Chipotle (CMG) economic indicator.

And if it's to be believed on an initial pass, we are either in a mild recession or nearing one.

While I was listening to Chipotle’s earnings call Wednesday night, CEO Scott Boatwright pinned a weak quarter and soft start to the fourth quarter (sales trends worsened versus the third quarter) on the financial troubles of young people.

It makes sense at first glance: AI is ripping through the entry-level job market, and 25-year-olds are still repaying loads of college debt.

"Earlier this year, as consumer sentiment declined sharply, we saw a broad-based pullback in frequency across all income cohorts," Boatwright explained. "Since then, the gap has widened, with low- to middle-income guests further reducing frequency. We believe that this guest, with household income below $100,000, represents about 40% of our total sales, and based on our data, is dining out less often due to concerns about the economy and inflation. A particularly challenged cohort is the 25-to-35-year-old age group."

 

 

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from Friday last week:

SELL LIMIT:  nq  26105, ym  47850, es 6920

 

Will open new PUT position above ES 6905 - SOY, DIA, QQQ

 

Let's start new NET SHORT !

 

ES short 6892

 

SELL LIMIT:  nq  26105, ym  47850, es 6920

 

Will open new PUT position above ES 6905 - SOY, DIA, QQQ

 

Let's start new NET SHORT !

 

ES short 6892

[12SPX]

Slow start to the day but as I went into the weekend with a massive spread on my short from 6900 I profit stopped it overnight and was taken out at 6890 for a 10 point profit.  Starting a new short build at 6900 for the cash open.  I think this month is going to be interesting volatility wise as it hit me like a brick this weekend and makes for an interesting discussion.  Like Nividea is huge today for AI, Intel was back in the dotcom era with the stock rallying 1000% in 5 years to never get back to those levels.  SOoooo the question is,,,, Nividea is today's chipmaker and up about 1500%.  The question is where are we in the cycle......For sure not the beginning but are we in the middle or end.....can they make the chip much much better or is it getting old....

[12SPX]

And there's the volatility I was talking about with another gap up open and then a sell off, profit stop 6895

[redfoliage2]

The gap-up got sold and so the gap was back-filled.  VST, the dip likely to be bought  ....................... 

Edited by redfoliage2, 03 November 2025 - 09:52 AM.

[redfoliage2]

For the first trading day of Nov.  I see the market is more likely to ends the day higher from here.  BTW, SEMI sector is strong and leading higher after China removed some restrictions over the weekend on chips import from US tech companies  .........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 03 November 2025 - 10:03 AM.

[12SPX]

profit stop 6885, sell above....whoops also forgot my daily call option sell was on the 6920 overnight for $6.40, nicely profitable now!!! 

[redfoliage2]

For the first trading day of Nov.  I see the market is more likely to ends the day higher from here.  BTW, SEMI sector is strong and leading higher after China removed some restrictions over the weekend on chips import from US tech companies  .........................

With US-China reached a one year trade agreement the bull run is more likely to continue in the last quarter of the year.  It's likely to see SPX reaches 7000 before the end of the year ...........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 03 November 2025 - 10:17 AM.

[dTraderB]

Close 1 each ... want to go flat to LONG on this dip,, but prefer to see this low tested at least once later today or tomorrow, 

 

Want to start building a medium to large LONG position with CALLS ... DEC, and than JAN, and then hold all the way into mid to late DECEMBER

[dTraderB]

NET FLAT 

,, but several PUTS & CALLS, got to close  PUTS and keep CALLS. Broker like my type of trading...

[redfoliage2]

BTW, the Supreme court to start court oral arguments on Trump's tariffs this week may put some pressures on the market, but for those who understand the court precedures there won't be a final judgement on this case till some time next year.  So, this dip is likely to be bought soon .........................

Edited by redfoliage2, 03 November 2025 - 10:36 AM.