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The Chipotle indicator: Is the economy teetering on a recession or nah?


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#61 12SPX

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 08:30 AM

Well that was fun, although I can't claim it was real because I didn't post it but I do like placing rogue trades for overnight trading and for fun last night I went long at 6750 with a current profit stop at 6790 but this is an unofficial trade as I didn't post it.  Actually didn't think I would get filled but you inspired to have faith d and red lol!!  This morning I did also sell the daily 6750 puts for $8 though.  Market is likely to remain volatile this morning but would love some kind of rally to sell some calls also and maybe flip to short as we are approaching a record for the S&P500 cash market seeing its 50-day average, which is quite a bit lower!!!



#62 12SPX

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 08:42 AM

One thing I can say is that puts are priced for crash prices right now while call prices have suddenly crashed and were barely down which is very interesting so there is a good chance we'll see a little bit of a rally today....unofficial profit stop 6800 for the cash open...



#63 dTraderB

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 08:44 AM

Open HEDGE SHORTs: ES 6806

 

sell limit NQ 25625, YM 47500, ES 6850



#64 dTraderB

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 08:46 AM

Yeah, a rally, and another leg down unless this GOVT SHUTDOWN issue is resolved quickly - most likely this week as ELECTIONS over

One thing I can say is that puts are priced for crash prices right now while call prices have suddenly crashed and were barely down which is very interesting so there is a good chance we'll see a little bit of a rally today....unofficial profit stop 6800 for the cash open...



#65 12SPX

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 09:26 AM

Out for my unofficial long for a 50 point profit before the cash open...



#66 12SPX

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 09:27 AM

Open HEDGE SHORTs: ES 6806

 

sell limit NQ 25625, YM 47500, ES 6850

Yes I'd rather be short to so still hoping for a bit higher yet, am going to sell the daily 6825 calls to start and if hit that will be where my short starts..



#67 12SPX

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 09:53 AM

There we go sold the daily 6825 calls for $10.25 and will go short there if hit!! 



#68 12SPX

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 09:58 AM

And selling the daily 6850 calls for $4.25



#69 redfoliage2

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 10:07 AM

 

Open HEDGE SHORTs: ES 6806

 

sell limit NQ 25625, YM 47500, ES 6850

Yes I'd rather be short to so still hoping for a bit higher yet, am going to sell the daily 6825 calls to start and if hit that will be where my short starts..

 

Before the gov reopens there are likely more ups and downs, and I'm on VST trading mode buying and selling on an intra-day time frame and won't post any trades with my VST trading activities  ................................


Edited by redfoliage2, 05 November 2025 - 10:09 AM.


#70 12SPX

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Posted 05 November 2025 - 10:13 AM

I did start my short build at 6825, and will just add to it.  I think that the market could come under pressure again here with bond yields on the rise as there is more and more chance of the Fed not lowering in December and we need to go a little lower yet....