2 replies to this topic

[slupert]

said in his last appearance the increase in productivity can not be attributed to AI, since the increase began in 2019., 3 years before chat GPT. Wall Streets expectations for this years SPX earnings are lofty. and include the enhanced productivity. Margin deterioration due to sticky inflation, higher costs due to tariffs etc. The increase in productivity in 2019 and after could be the natural increase in productivity American businesses achieve regularly. We did manage to do quite well for ourselves before AI came along. From 2020 on the digital adoption certainly helped, also it may be as simple as the economy saying Bye Bye Boomers. If you have somebody who has made a career out of his job, when he retires of course the new employee will be making less than th guy that was there for 20 years. There was a shortage for labor which would show increased earnings for the hires in the data but define the reason would not capture the net positive effect of the boomer retirement. So to sum it up, we have a productivity boost that even Powell can't define, so is it a good bet to blindly assume this boost continues. I think this will all come under question and we can see a significant pullback at some time. Also the dollar and of course the debt will be huge factors as well, I'll get back to that at some other time. (JMHO)

[pdx5]

5.4 % GDP growth coming up in 4th quarter

Edited by pdx5, 09 January 2026 - 06:55 PM.

[pdx5]

How does Powell react to 5.4% GDP growth in 4th quarter? Not seen such numbers for many years.