71 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

NO, NOT AS YET, A FEW MORE PULLBACKS & NEW ATHs before the AI crash

 

Here is a good article on this topic:

 

https://articles.sto...w-to-combat-it/

[dTraderB]

FUNDSTRAT not in usual very bullish mood or mode:

"...As Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee put it, the story of “software eating the world,” which we read repeatedly from 1980-2025, is now becoming one of “AI eating software.” Yet this shift, to Lee, signals that AI is productive and has a payoff. “To us, [the carnage in software] argues that AI’s biggest impact in the U.S. is ultimately less inflation. Because if there are fewer workers, less software and services spend, but the same output, this is both productivity-enhancing and disinflationary.”

From a technical analysis perspective, Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton acknowledged that “software has struggled to stabilize and find a bottom, [and] they look like they’re going straight down in the short run.” Going forward, Newton told us that “I don’t sense it’s going to be an area to overweight within technology.”

As he told us during our weekly huddle, however, the situation does not necessarily look so dire for those with more of an intermediate-term timeframe. “The intermediate-term charts help to put this deterioration into perspective,” he suggested, and “I do sense that this group can bounce.”

Regardless of one’s views on Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s choice to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, Newton noted this that the changeover to a new Fed chair has historically tended to be followed by market uncertainty and short-term drawdowns. Newton also sees a seasonality challenge. “The second year of a second term of a president has tended to coincide with challenging years for stock investors,” he pointed out, a pattern that has largely held true going as far back as Harry S. Truman’s second term.

For the most part, this independently coincides with Lee’s view. As he reiterated this week, Lee said, “We still think markets have enough tailwinds to get to 7,300, and then we do think there’s likely to be a drawdown that feels like a bear market this year. And then year-end we do finish stronger, in my view.”

[dTraderB]

• 2/17 8:30 AM ET: Jan Retail Sales
• 2/17 8:30 AM ET: Feb Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 2/17 10:00 AM ET: Feb NAHB Housing Market Index
• 2/18 8:30 AM ET: Dec P Durable Goods Orders MoM
• 2/18 2:00 PM ET: Jan FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2/18 4:00 PM ET: Dec Net TIC Flows
• 2/19 8:30 AM ET: Dec Trade Balance
• 2/19 8:30 AM ET: Feb Philly Fed Business Outlook
• 2/20 8:30 AM ET: 4Q A GDP QoQ
• 2/20 8:30 AM ET: Dec Core PCE MoM
• 2/20 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Services PMI
• 2/20 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
• 2/20 10:00 AM ET: Feb F U. Mich. 1yr Inf Exp
• 2/20 10:00 AM ET: Dec New Home Sales

FUNDSTRAT not in usual very bullish mood or mode:

"...As Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee put it, the story of “software eating the world,” which we read repeatedly from 1980-2025, is now becoming one of “AI eating software.” Yet this shift, to Lee, signals that AI is productive and has a payoff. “To us, [the carnage in software] argues that AI’s biggest impact in the U.S. is ultimately less inflation. Because if there are fewer workers, less software and services spend, but the same output, this is both productivity-enhancing and disinflationary.”

From a technical analysis perspective, Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton acknowledged that “software has struggled to stabilize and find a bottom, [and] they look like they’re going straight down in the short run.” Going forward, Newton told us that “I don’t sense it’s going to be an area to overweight within technology.”

As he told us during our weekly huddle, however, the situation does not necessarily look so dire for those with more of an intermediate-term timeframe. “The intermediate-term charts help to put this deterioration into perspective,” he suggested, and “I do sense that this group can bounce.”

Regardless of one’s views on Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s choice to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, Newton noted this that the changeover to a new Fed chair has historically tended to be followed by market uncertainty and short-term drawdowns. Newton also sees a seasonality challenge. “The second year of a second term of a president has tended to coincide with challenging years for stock investors,” he pointed out, a pattern that has largely held true going as far back as Harry S. Truman’s second term.

For the most part, this independently coincides with Lee’s view. As he reiterated this week, Lee said, “We still think markets have enough tailwinds to get to 7,300, and then we do think there’s likely to be a drawdown that feels like a bear market this year. And then year-end we do finish stronger, in my view.”

[12SPX]

Yup volatility is the word and that is what were seeing and will continue all year.  The one thing I love is after you start to work through the market from highs is that both calls and puts that are even further away from the index become full of premium such as the 6920 actually hitting a high of $10 on Sunday.  I sold it for $7.20 and then with the pullback puts have gotten expensive so I sold the 6750 puts a few minutes ago for $8.10... All of it goes off the board at the cash close today, gotta love it!! 

[dTraderB]

Adding SPY, QQQ, IWM CALLS below ES 6810,  6780 

[dTraderB]

and DIA below YM 49400

 

This sharp reversal from opening highs could go on for a few hours...  then VERY QUICKLY REVERSE

 

Adding SPY, QQQ, IWM CALLS below ES 6810,  6780 

[dTraderB]

cannot resist new ORCL CALL position near 155

 

 

and DIA below YM 49400

 

This sharp reversal from opening highs could go on for a few hours...  then VERY QUICKLY REVERSE

 

Adding SPY, QQQ, IWM CALLS below ES 6810,  6780 

 

[12SPX]

You gotta love it, 6750 puts popped to over $8 when the ES hit bottom and then just a few point turn and boom back down to $5 lol!! 

[dTraderB]

I think IBIT near a ST LOW  - will add at least 2 CALLS

cannot resist new ORCL CALL position near 155

 

 

and DIA below YM 49400

 

This sharp reversal from opening highs could go on for a few hours...  then VERY QUICKLY REVERSE

 

Adding SPY, QQQ, IWM CALLS below ES 6810,  6780 

 

 

[K Wave]

FUNDSTRAT not in usual very bullish mood or mode:

"...As Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee put it, the story of “software eating the world,” which we read repeatedly from 1980-2025, is now becoming one of “AI eating software.” Yet this shift, to Lee, signals that AI is productive and has a payoff. “To us, [the carnage in software] argues that AI’s biggest impact in the U.S. is ultimately less inflation. Because if there are fewer workers, less software and services spend, but the same output, this is both productivity-enhancing and disinflationary.”

From a technical analysis perspective, Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton acknowledged that “software has struggled to stabilize and find a bottom, [and] they look like they’re going straight down in the short run.” Going forward, Newton told us that “I don’t sense it’s going to be an area to overweight within technology.”

As he told us during our weekly huddle, however, the situation does not necessarily look so dire for those with more of an intermediate-term timeframe. “The intermediate-term charts help to put this deterioration into perspective,” he suggested, and “I do sense that this group can bounce.”

Regardless of one’s views on Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s choice to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, Newton noted this that the changeover to a new Fed chair has historically tended to be followed by market uncertainty and short-term drawdowns. Newton also sees a seasonality challenge. “The second year of a second term of a president has tended to coincide with challenging years for stock investors,” he pointed out, a pattern that has largely held true going as far back as Harry S. Truman’s second term.

For the most part, this independently coincides with Lee’s view. As he reiterated this week, Lee said, “We still think markets have enough tailwinds to get to 7,300, and then we do think there’s likely to be a drawdown that feels like a bear market this year. And then year-end we do finish stronger, in my view.”

 

Crappy software companies like INTU gettin' HAMMERED....With Claude, cost of entry to write far better software next to nothing...

 

My nephew and I are actually thinking about taking them on after he is done at the Sweatshop AKA Palantir.

 

They have completely raped their small business customer base as "the only real game in town", and are ripe for disruption. A lot of their customers actually hate them....with a passion.