71 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

Took profits earlier on the sold daily calls for $6.90 and just took profits on the sold daily 6750 puts for $7.30...  gotta love volatility and pricey options on both sides....

[12SPX]

 

FUNDSTRAT not in usual very bullish mood or mode:

"...As Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee put it, the story of “software eating the world,” which we read repeatedly from 1980-2025, is now becoming one of “AI eating software.” Yet this shift, to Lee, signals that AI is productive and has a payoff. “To us, [the carnage in software] argues that AI’s biggest impact in the U.S. is ultimately less inflation. Because if there are fewer workers, less software and services spend, but the same output, this is both productivity-enhancing and disinflationary.”

From a technical analysis perspective, Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton acknowledged that “software has struggled to stabilize and find a bottom, [and] they look like they’re going straight down in the short run.” Going forward, Newton told us that “I don’t sense it’s going to be an area to overweight within technology.”

As he told us during our weekly huddle, however, the situation does not necessarily look so dire for those with more of an intermediate-term timeframe. “The intermediate-term charts help to put this deterioration into perspective,” he suggested, and “I do sense that this group can bounce.”

Regardless of one’s views on Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s choice to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, Newton noted this that the changeover to a new Fed chair has historically tended to be followed by market uncertainty and short-term drawdowns. Newton also sees a seasonality challenge. “The second year of a second term of a president has tended to coincide with challenging years for stock investors,” he pointed out, a pattern that has largely held true going as far back as Harry S. Truman’s second term.

For the most part, this independently coincides with Lee’s view. As he reiterated this week, Lee said, “We still think markets have enough tailwinds to get to 7,300, and then we do think there’s likely to be a drawdown that feels like a bear market this year. And then year-end we do finish stronger, in my view.”

 

Crappy software companies like INTU gettin' HAMMERED....With Claude, cost of entry to write far better software next to nothing...

 

My nephew and I are actually thinking about taking them on after he is done at the Sweatshop AKA Palantir.

 

They have completely raped their small business customer base as "the only real game in town", and are ripe for disruption. A lot of their customers actually hate them....with a passion.

 

 

wow ouch!!! 

[redfoliage2]

The market has stabilized at the bottom of the month-long trading range ...............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 17 February 2026 - 02:36 PM.

[dTraderB]

no, they seem more cautious. I think they also got hit hard with BITCOIN crash

 

 

FUNDSTRAT not in usual very bullish mood or mode:

"...As Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee put it, the story of “software eating the world,” which we read repeatedly from 1980-2025, is now becoming one of “AI eating software.” Yet this shift, to Lee, signals that AI is productive and has a payoff. “To us, [the carnage in software] argues that AI’s biggest impact in the U.S. is ultimately less inflation. Because if there are fewer workers, less software and services spend, but the same output, this is both productivity-enhancing and disinflationary.”

From a technical analysis perspective, Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton acknowledged that “software has struggled to stabilize and find a bottom, [and] they look like they’re going straight down in the short run.” Going forward, Newton told us that “I don’t sense it’s going to be an area to overweight within technology.”

As he told us during our weekly huddle, however, the situation does not necessarily look so dire for those with more of an intermediate-term timeframe. “The intermediate-term charts help to put this deterioration into perspective,” he suggested, and “I do sense that this group can bounce.”

Regardless of one’s views on Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s choice to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve, Newton noted this that the changeover to a new Fed chair has historically tended to be followed by market uncertainty and short-term drawdowns. Newton also sees a seasonality challenge. “The second year of a second term of a president has tended to coincide with challenging years for stock investors,” he pointed out, a pattern that has largely held true going as far back as Harry S. Truman’s second term.

For the most part, this independently coincides with Lee’s view. As he reiterated this week, Lee said, “We still think markets have enough tailwinds to get to 7,300, and then we do think there’s likely to be a drawdown that feels like a bear market this year. And then year-end we do finish stronger, in my view.”

 

Crappy software companies like INTU gettin' HAMMERED....With Claude, cost of entry to write far better software next to nothing...

 

My nephew and I are actually thinking about taking them on after he is done at the Sweatshop AKA Palantir.

 

They have completely raped their small business customer base as "the only real game in town", and are ripe for disruption. A lot of their customers actually hate them....with a passion.

 

 

[dTraderB]

Will hold longs. Marketa up this morning after sharp reversal late in the NY session

 

open hedges :  SHORT ES 6994, NQ 24905

Sell limit YM 49900 

 

 

I think IBIT near a ST LOW  - will add at least 2 CALLS

cannot resist new ORCL CALL position near 155

 

 

and DIA below YM 49400

 

This sharp reversal from opening highs could go on for a few hours...  then VERY QUICKLY REVERSE

 

Adding SPY, QQQ, IWM CALLS below ES 6810,  6780 

 

 

 

[12SPX]

Getting coffee but got filled on the daily 6930 calls for $4.50, great start to the day...

[12SPX]

whoops did,t hit send but just before the open did sell the 6750 puts for $2.10

[dTraderB]

finally, I got YM hedge short 

 

Will start taking profits above ES 6925 -- maybe it will pullback 20 to 30 ES points & I will add CALLS

 

Will hold longs. Marketa up this morning after sharp reversal late in the NY session

 

open hedges :  SHORT ES 6994, NQ 24905

Sell limit YM 49900 

 

 

I think IBIT near a ST LOW  - will add at least 2 CALLS

cannot resist new ORCL CALL position near 155

 

 

and DIA below YM 49400

 

This sharp reversal from opening highs could go on for a few hours...  then VERY QUICKLY REVERSE

 

Adding SPY, QQQ, IWM CALLS below ES 6810,  6780 

 

 

 

 

[12SPX]

Nice move so far, average sell on the 6930 calls $6.35

[12SPX]

Hmmmmmm, profit stopping 6830 calls at $6 as we may still see some more upside...  Will follow it down...