According to my turn probability summation system, the days this week with the highest likelihood of seeing a turn in or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA are Monday February 23rd and Friday the 27th, but as has been the case for lo these many weeks, the summation value for the other days of the week are also disturbingly elevated indicating a higher than normal risk of a turn. I don't know why this abnormal continuous risk persists, whether it's my stinking system or some cycle anomaly. I am going to do a deeper dig into the data this week to try to figure out what the heck is going on. More to come on that later this week.
Last week the Tuesday thru Wednesday the 17th - 18th turn window shown in the finviz.com plot below in red tagged what appears to be an important top of some degree. The green overhead resistance line I mentioned last week is still holding for the time being.
As I pen this note early Monday morning UK time, the futures are sagging under the weight of the SCOTUS ruling against the tariffs and the POTUS new 10%, 15% across the board, sort of, quickly stitched together economic Plan B. Plan A was new Mercantilism which used targeted tariffs to coerce compliant behaviour from trading partners to encourage reshoring manufacturing to create jobs for the bottom of the economic "K". I'm not sure what Plan B is, nor does it appear the White House. An awfully big piece of the economic strategy of this POTUS appears to have died on the steps of the SCOTUS last Friday. It looks to me like the bottom of the "K" kind of just fell off leaving the US a "Y" economy with everything at the top and diddly squat at the bottom.
So let's see, the current state of affairs is the Treasury and Fed printing money like crazy to pump up the stock market benefiting the top of "K" economy, slashing regulations for corporations again benefiting the top of the "K" and limited across the board tariffs which will just raise prices hurting folks at the bottom of the "K" and not encourage any movement in manufacturing jobs. Hoping that the bottom of the "K" won't notice and will be satisfied with the old time tested plan of just getting crumbs falling from the table of the top of the "K" is probably a dangerous strategy with all the promises that have been made regarding jobs and cost of living with the mid-terms looming. I'm not sure "bread and circuses" will satisfy the restless voting hoi polloi at the lower end of the "K" this time. Also I don't think that this stock market has yet priced in a potential train wreck coming in November even with all the funny money funnelled its way. Tick Tock.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 23 February 2026 - 02:04 AM.
