58 replies to this topic

[redfoliage2]

As I said a couple days ago ST this market is just a news-driven market.  Currently it's absorbed enough bad news and is set up in conditions pending a reversal.  Tomorrow looks a perfect day for it .....................

Too much of a bad thing can be just as good ................................

[12SPX]

Down again this morning which is very interesting.  Something tells me the data out this morning wont be very important unless its way off estimates.  Last night I sold the daily 6920 calls for $4.10 which are nicely profitable this morning and now I'm selling the daily 6700 puts for $8.  Should be another exciting day of trading this volatile market!! 

[12SPX]

Matter of fact I'm taking profits on these calls for $3.40 as I have a feeling we could see a massive after the data comes out no matter what it is.  Market is in an interesting place here and put prices are getting quite pricey down here compared to calls which remain high actually which is interesting.  Has been fun trading for sure this week, much more relaxed trading decaying premium over direction, I actually walk away from my computer all the time!! 

[12SPX]

Whew way off estimates expecting +52,000 and got negative -92,000 unemployment up to 4.4%.  Only good news was that wages went up a little.  Got the nice spike down to add to my puts though now averaging $9.30.  Were a little lower now but no big selling so far.  Going to be a fun day for sure lol!! 

[redfoliage2]

With today's job and retail sales data the Fed should cut the rate before it's too late ......................

Edited by redfoliage2, 06 March 2026 - 09:31 AM.

[12SPX]

What's interesting is that bond yields are moving up after this data, surprising, do they know something we don't lol!! 

[12SPX]

6700 puts nicely profitable now so I'm going crazy and selling the daily 6720 puts for $7.10

[redfoliage2]

It's all about the crude oil price.  The crude oil price is likely to continue rising next week unless there are signs for ceasefire in the Middles East, but currently it looks unlikely next week.   The crude oil price may go to $100 - $150 as soon as next week.  A black Monday is entirely possible ........................ 

https://www.nbcnews....ader-rcna262018

Edited by redfoliage2, 06 March 2026 - 03:23 PM.

[redfoliage2]

The index futures market opened with ES dropped thru the bottom of the trading range that was developed since mid Dec last year. ST we are likely to see it below 6600 .................

[redfoliage2]

ES made a reversal after it touched the low at 6570.85 made last Nov. 21 .............................

Edited by redfoliage2, 09 March 2026 - 04:45 AM.