According to my turn probability summation system, this coming week is an unmitigated mess with elevated turn probability summation values just about every day. The peak value occurs on Tuesday March 10 with the values on Wednesday the 11th and Friday the 13th not far behind. Not much help except to warn that you must be on your toes this coming week.
Last week I noted that the summation portended whipsaw action and that's what we got with a sharp rally into the weekly high in the Monday the 2nd turn window, then a sharp sell off into the Tuesday turn window followed by another rally then a plunge into a low in the Friday the 6th turn window shown in the finviz.com hourly DJIA future plot below.
I speculated in last week's post that war would be good for business unless oil prices got out of hand and out of hand they got. The plot below shows a couple of projections for a top in WTI. The first being the top of the red channel at about $110/B. The second at the end of the AB = CD Larry Pesavento pattern near $150/B depending, I suppose, on how badly or well this not-war goes.
At the risk of yet once again sounding like a Chicken Little, the next crash risk window opens this coming week ideally from appropriately Friday March 13th until Monday March 16th, but given how much market manipulation is currently underway, I think that the crash risk window could be quite distorted and probably should be stretched from this coming Tuesday the 10th's turn window until maybe as late as the following Thursday the 19th of March. The risk, of course, is very, very small which should be obvious given how many of these cotton picking crash windows that I have noted over the last several years none of which amounting to anything. For the crash to occur the market must be oversold in the risk window and some black swan like event must occur in the window. That last requirement is the real killer which shoots down virtually every one of these crash risk windows.
The above blathering begs the question, what constitutes a crash these days? Well, it's certainly not a 1000 DOW point range day. We seem to be getting a lot of those lately. For the above paragraph of pessimism to be confirmed, I would think that trading should be paused by the NYSE if not outright halted. If not that extreme, at least the hourly DJIA bars should be gapping down to some deep major support like the 200 week SMA, maybe the long term trend line or possibly the Elliott Wave 4 of previous degree and 61.8% Fib retracement at about 37,000. These possible targets for any such debacle are shown in the DJIA daily plot below.
Of course, given the Fed/Treasury amalgamation's primary directive of kiting the S&P index to the sky, their intervention at the first inkling of any such slide may be so swift and dramatic that no crash is possible due to the absolute flood of funny money they are prepared to unleash. As I have said before, price discovery in this age of intervention is discovering that the reasonable price that you were expecting is never available.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 08 March 2026 - 09:01 AM.
